Demand for copper is surging because of demand from new technologies, but suppliers are struggling to keep up, and they are likely to fall further behind in the coming years, resulting in shortfalls globally. Even though copper prices are at historically high levels, the financial risk involved in mining means that prices will need to go much higher before mining companies see profit in addressing the supply shortage.
Those are the key findings from our March 2026 .
Copper is an that is used in generating and distributing electrical power; cables, wires, motor windings, transformers and cooling equipment in ; and of consumer and .
It’s so important that in 2025, the U.S. Geological Survey designated copper as a mineral “.”
Copper is , but there’s not enough being extracted to be able to meet the demand. That’s because investors want higher and more reliable returns than copper mines currently offer, and the industry faces complex permitting processes and . Our analysis found that for new technologies to continue to develop, and for the global economy to continue to grow, even higher prices are ahead.
Few options other than mining
In the United States, the increased effort to build data centers for artificial intelligence systems has created a . Car manufacturers require some copper for internal combustion vehicles and . In addition, as , in many emerging and developing economies , requiring copper inside the equipment and more wiring to power them.
Recycling existing copper could help reduce the amount needed from new mines, but it would not be enough to meet the rising demand. Even under generous assumptions, we found that , with mining producing the remaining 65%.
Substituting another material for copper won’t really work either – at least in the short-to-medium term. Copper has an unmatched combination of – which is why it became popular for so many purposes in the first place.
Aluminum could replace it in , but – and that would amount to .
Fiber optics can also replace copper at times. Their more quickly than copper wires, but they can’t also carry power. New copper substitutes, like , , and , are promising but still in their infancy.
Complicated circumstances
The only other way to get more copper is to mine more of it. But building a new mine can – a period during which investors are spending money but not yet getting returns, and a time when from preliminary estimates.
If industrial and economic growth is to stay on track in the 2030s, new mines would need to be in the financing and permitting processes right now. But they aren’t.
Even , which started decades ago trying to develop a mine in Arizona outside Phoenix, has before being able to start mining. Since 1995, the project’s developers have spent on planning, permitting and .
Once in place, it could meet from a high-concentration body of ore located near existing truck and rail lines.
Evaluating the environmental and community effects of proposed mining projects is essential, but in many countries there are that have different, and variable, timelines. And many parts of the process can be appealed to courts by opponents or supporters. That increases costs and imposes time delays for mine developers – and means consumers will have to wait longer, and pay more, for copper-intensive products and services.
Yet even though copper prices are near historic highs – over – the profit margins are still too low and price swings are too volatile for companies to forecast reliable returns on the of building new mines.
Global inequalities
Copper is but used .
That leaves copper vulnerable to national policies about , leading to and price shocks.
Countries with low and middle per-capita income are likely to require to grow their economies. Right now, wealthy countries like the U.S. and members of the European Union have about 440 pounds (200 kilograms) per person – electrical wiring, plumbing systems, architectural elements and transportation. But that figure is in Africa and .in India.
Shortages are likely
To get a picture of what might be possible if there were a significant global effort to increase copper availability, we evaluated several optimistic scenarios. We looked at faster permitting for new mines, higher recycling rates and smoother mining processes than those currently in place. But even then, economic development drove .
Existing mines will have decreasing amounts of ore available and will produce less copper in 2050 than they do in 2025. Yet even if all known copper deposits with known mine-opening dates go into production as scheduled copper supplies will not keep up with demand.
Our best-case scenario has of copper a year by 2050. But to keep pace with global economic development, the world will need 37 million metric tons of mined copper a year by then.
To meet that additional need, more mines will need to be opened, and extra production developed – including that was previously viewed as having too little copper to be worth processing.
A role for government
We found that more copper could be made available more quickly if in ways that but offer some predictability for regulatory approval.
If society wants more copper, faster, then people must accept that higher, more stable prices are part of the solution. contributes to price volatility, which complicates and in the that new mines require.
Higher copper prices will ripple through the economy, raising costs for construction, energy and technology. But pretending those costs can be avoided doesn’t make them disappear. Underinvestment across the supply chain from mines to processing today shows up as bottlenecks tomorrow, including delayed grid upgrades and constrained digital growth.
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