BY MIRABEL ODETA
President Donald Trump was warned in advance that attacking Iran could trigger retaliation against U.S. allies in the Gulf, despite his public claim that Tehran’s response came as a surprise, according to a U.S. official and two sources familiar with intelligence assessments.
Pre-war intelligence did not present Iran’s retaliation as certain, but it was clearly identified as a possible outcome. One source noted that while it was not guaranteed, it remained firmly within the range of expected scenarios considered by analysts.
On Monday, Trump stated twice that Iran’s strikes on countries including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait had come as a surprise. Speaking during a meeting at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, he said Iran was not expected to target multiple countries across the region and described the developments as shocking.
His remarks followed earlier claims by his administration that have not been supported by U.S. intelligence findings. These included assertions that Iran was close to developing a missile capable of reaching the United States and that it could produce and deploy a nuclear weapon within a matter of weeks. Such arguments, alongside claims of an imminent threat to U.S. forces in the region, were among the reasons cited by Trump and senior aides to justify joining Israel in launching airstrikes against Iran on February 28.
According to additional sources, Trump was also briefed prior to the operation that Iran might attempt to close the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route. Over the past two weeks, Iranian drones and missiles have struck targets across Gulf states, including U.S. military installations, an Emirati base hosting French troops, and civilian infrastructure such as hotels, airports, and energy facilities.
Iran has also severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a passage responsible for transporting roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, leading to sharp increases in global energy prices.
Lawmakers from the Democratic Party, after attending classified briefings on the conflict, said they were not presented with evidence of an immediate threat that would have justified launching the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign.
The White House has not issued an immediate response to these accounts, while the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
U.S. officials indicated that Trump had been warned before the strikes that military action against Iran could escalate into a broader regional war. Intelligence assessments suggested that Iran might target Gulf capitals, particularly if it perceived those nations as supporting or enabling U.S. operations.
Despite this, Trump reiterated later in the Oval Office that no experts had predicted such a response. He maintained that no one had anticipated Iran would carry out strikes against multiple countries in the region.
Another source familiar with the intelligence analysis said that prior to the attacks, the U.S. intelligence community had assessed that Israel’s strategy particularly efforts to eliminate senior Iranian leadership would likely provoke retaliation against U.S. military and diplomatic facilities.
Evacuations of diplomatic personnel from several embassies in the region were not ordered until after the air campaign had already begun. Intelligence officials had also warned that Iran could broaden its response beyond U.S. assets to include American allies throughout the Middle East, raising concerns about a wider and more prolonged regional conflict.
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