Crude prices are poised to rise further as the ongoing U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and places critical Middle Eastern energy infrastructure at risk.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Global oil markets are preparing for additional price increases as the U.S.–Israeli war against Iran entered its third week, placing major energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf at risk and shutting down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global crude exports.
Crude benchmarks have already surged dramatically during the conflict. Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures have climbed more than 40 percent during the month, reaching levels not seen since 2022 after Tehran halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in response to military operations targeting Iran.
The waterway is one of the most important energy chokepoints in the world, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil supply under normal conditions.
The escalating confrontation intensified after President Donald Trump warned that additional U.S. strikes could target Iran’s Kharg Island oil export facility. Iranian officials responded with threats of further retaliation as military activity expanded across the region.
On Saturday, U.S. forces carried out strikes against military targets on Kharg Island. Shortly afterward, Iranian drones struck a major oil terminal in the United Arab Emirates, widening the scope of the conflict and raising concerns about potential damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf.
Energy analysts say the attacks represent a significant shift in the conflict’s trajectory.
“This marks an escalation in the conflict,” analysts at JPMorgan, led by Natasha Kaneva, wrote in a note assessing the situation.
“Until now, the region’s oil infrastructure has largely been spared.”
Several major oil export and processing facilities in the Gulf region are considered particularly vulnerable should the conflict expand further. Analysts identified the UAE’s Fujairah export hub, Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil terminal and the Abqaiq processing complex as critical nodes within the global petroleum supply chain.
The Fujairah facility is a key outlet for Murban crude produced by the United Arab Emirates. Located outside the Strait of Hormuz, the port handles roughly one million barrels of oil per day, equivalent to about one percent of global demand.
Industry sources reported that oil loading operations at Fujairah resumed on Sunday following disruptions caused by the earlier drone strike.
Despite the resumption of activity there, the broader conflict has significantly reduced global supply. According to estimates from the International Energy Agency, shipping disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could remove approximately eight million barrels per day from global markets during March.
At the same time, Middle Eastern oil producers have reduced output by at least ten million barrels per day amid the widening conflict.
In response to the supply shock and the surge in global prices, the International Energy Agency last week approved the release of a record 400 million barrels of crude oil from strategic reserves held by member nations.
Japan is scheduled to begin releasing oil from its strategic stockpiles on Monday as part of the coordinated effort aimed at stabilizing markets.
Diplomatic efforts to halt the conflict have so far failed to gain traction. According to individuals familiar with the discussions, the Trump administration has declined proposals from Middle Eastern allies to begin negotiations with Tehran.
Iranian officials have also rejected the possibility of a ceasefire unless U.S. and Israeli military operations are halted first.
With the Strait of Hormuz still closed and multiple export terminals now considered potential targets, traders and analysts are watching the oil market closely ahead of the next trading session, where prices could extend their recent surge if disruptions persist.
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