By Elsie Kamsiyochi
Global oil markets surged on Friday, with Brent crude climbing above the psychologically important $100-per-barrel mark as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
Confusion surrounding the movement of an India-flagged tanker initially sparked hope that shipping activity had resumed through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, but those hopes quickly faded when it became clear the vessel had never passed through the strait at all.
Brent crude futures for May delivery rose by $1.37, or about 1.36%, reaching $101.83 per barrel during trading. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April delivery also posted gains, climbing 53 cents to $96.26 per barrel. Both major benchmarks are on track to finish the week higher after experiencing sharp price spikes driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East and persistent concerns about global oil supply disruptions.
Tanker Confusion Highlights Market Anxiety
Early reports suggested that an India-flagged tanker had successfully sailed through the Strait of Hormuz while transporting gasoline bound for Africa. Such a development would have indicated a partial reopening of the crucial maritime passage, which handles a large portion of the world’s seaborne oil shipments.
However, officials later clarified that the tanker had actually departed from Oman, located east of the Strait of Hormuz, meaning it had never passed through the narrow waterway. The misunderstanding briefly eased market anxiety before traders realized the strait remains effectively closed.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is one of the most important oil transit routes in the world. Roughly a fifth of global oil supply typically passes through this narrow channel each day. Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, however, the waterway has been heavily disrupted.
Iranian forces have reportedly targeted vessels attempting to navigate the passage, attacking or threatening tankers in an effort to exert pressure on the United States and its allies.
U.S. Moves to Stabilize Oil Supply
In an effort to prevent the global energy market from spiraling further into crisis, the United States has introduced temporary measures to ease supply constraints. Washington recently issued a 30-day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products that are currently stranded at sea due to sanctions and logistical disruptions.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the move was intended to stabilize global markets rattled by the widening Middle East conflict. According to Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev, the policy could affect roughly 100 million barrels of Russian crude currently awaiting delivery — an amount close to a full day of global oil production.
Energy analysts note that the measure does not necessarily increase the total supply of oil available worldwide, but it helps remove logistical barriers preventing oil already sold from reaching buyers.
Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, explained that the waiver reduces market friction rather than adding fresh supply.
“Russian oil was already going to buyers,” he said. “This does not introduce new barrels into the market, but it does help ease some of the obstacles slowing deliveries.”
Strategic Oil Reserves Released
The sanctions waiver followed another significant step by Washington to calm markets. The U.S. Energy Department announced plans to release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in an attempt to counter the surge in global crude prices.
The release forms part of a coordinated international response led by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The agency has proposed a record combined release of approximately 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles among member nations.
Despite the massive planned injection of emergency reserves, analysts say the move has only offered temporary relief.
Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, said the calming effect of the reserve releases was quickly overshadowed by renewed geopolitical tensions.
Iran Signals Continued Pressure
Adding to the uncertainty, Iran’s newly installed Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, declared that the country would continue fighting and maintain pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian leadership views control of the waterway as a strategic lever against the United States and Israel.
The conflict has already spilled into surrounding waters. Iraqi security officials reported that two fuel tankers anchored in Iraqi waters were struck by explosives-laden boats believed to be operated by Iranian forces. The attacks have forced Iraq to suspend operations at its oil export ports, further tightening global supply.
Meanwhile, reports from intelligence sources indicate that Iran has deployed approximately a dozen naval mines within the Strait of Hormuz. These mines could significantly delay efforts to reopen the route even if military tensions ease, as clearing operations could take considerable time.
Possible Naval Escort Missions
U.S. officials have suggested that military action may be required to restore safe passage through the strait. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated in an interview that the U.S. Navy — potentially working alongside an international coalition — may escort commercial vessels once it becomes militarily feasible.
Such a mission would aim to protect shipping from further attacks and re-establish one of the world’s most critical energy trade routes.
Market Outlook: Volatility Likely to Continue
The dramatic surge in prices reflects the oil market’s sensitivity to geopolitical risks. On Thursday alone, both Brent and WTI jumped more than 9%, marking their largest daily gains in years and reaching levels not seen since August 2022.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average above $100 per barrel during March before potentially easing to around $85 in April. However, analysts caution that forecasts remain highly uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of the conflict.
European markets appear particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions, analysts say, because the region relies heavily on imported energy. In contrast, the United States may be better insulated due to its significant domestic oil production.
Nevertheless, if infrastructure damage spreads or the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, global energy markets could face prolonged instability.
For now, traders remain focused on developments in the Middle East, where military escalation, attacks on tankers, and the potential deployment of naval escorts continue to shape the outlook for global oil supply.
Source Reuters
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