By Blessing Nweke
The government of Iran remains firmly in control despite relentless aerial attacks by the United States and Israel that have severely damaged the country’s air defenses, navy and missile arsenal, according to U.S. officials. As the war entered its 12th day, the conflict has also triggered major disruptions to global oil supplies.
President Donald Trump earlier described the war as a “little excursion,” but the crisis has escalated as commercial shipping faces threats in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally travels.
The U.S. and Israeli air campaign killed Iran’s long-time supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. However, he was quickly succeeded by his 56-year-old son, who analysts say shares his father’s hard-line ideology and maintains strong ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Experts say the leadership transition has not triggered significant internal fractures.
“The regime is still intact, and continuity is the order of the day,” said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
Meanwhile, Iran has effectively shut down tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Drones and other weapons have targeted vessels attempting to pass through the waterway, forcing several commercial ships to request assistance from the U.S. Navy. Officials say the threat level remains too high to allow routine naval escorts.
The disruption has sent shockwaves through energy markets, pushing oil prices sharply higher. Governments from dozens of countries have agreed to release 400 million barrels of crude from emergency reserves in an effort to stabilize prices.
Rising fuel costs pose a growing political challenge for the White House as the war continues. U.S. officials warn the conflict could stretch for several more weeks while the Pentagon attempts to further degrade Iran’s missile and drone capabilities and pressure Tehran over its nuclear program.
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