Allies point to economic strain and diplomatic outreach as Washington weighs next steps toward potential political transition.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Allies of President Donald Trump say the administration is increasingly focused on Cuba as it evaluates its next major foreign policy objective following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and the reported capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said over the weekend that “Cuba’s next,” describing the island’s communist government as vulnerable amid deepening economic hardship. “This communist dictatorship in Cuba? Their days are numbered,” Graham said, adding that he believes Trump’s foreign policy record surpasses that of former President Ronald Reagan.
According to a Newsmax report, officials have characterized the moment as a potential opportunity to reshape U.S.-Cuba relations after more than six decades of communist rule established under Fidel Castro.
Speaking outside the White House last week, Trump said Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been engaged in discussions related to Cuba and suggested that diplomatic developments could follow.
“The Cuban government is talking with us,” Trump said. “They have no money. They have no anything right now.”
“But they’re talking to us, and maybe we’ll have a friendly takeover,” he added.
Administration officials have described what they call a dual-track approach: increasing economic pressure on Havana while leaving open the possibility of negotiations that could allow expanded American business activity in exchange for political reforms.
According to reports cited by Axios and discussed in opinion columns in The Atlantic, Rubio has been involved in discussions that include individuals close to former Cuban leader Raúl Castro. Rather than negotiating directly with Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, outreach has reportedly included figures associated with the Castro family, including Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro.
For Rubio, whose parents immigrated from Cuba, engagement with the island’s leadership carries personal and political significance.
One source close to the State Department told Newsmax that Rubio is seeking a scenario comparable to what administration officials describe as a transition model in Venezuela, referencing Delcy Rodríguez, who is said to be working with U.S. officials toward democratic elections there.
Cuba’s economic challenges have intensified in recent months. After U.S. actions affecting Venezuela’s oil sector earlier this year, shipments of subsidized Venezuelan crude to Cuba were reduced, according to administration officials. A subsequent executive order threatened tariffs on countries supplying oil to Havana.
Cuban authorities have reported widespread blackouts, reduced industrial activity, and shortages of food and fuel. Airlines from Canada and Russia have suspended some flights amid reported jet fuel shortages, affecting tourism revenue.
Trump recently described Cuba as “an unusual and extraordinary threat,” though he did not elaborate on the characterization.
Critics of escalation note that Cuba’s military infrastructure dates largely to the Soviet era and that there are no confirmed deployments of advanced Russian, Chinese, or Iranian missile systems on the island. Administration officials counter that economic instability could create conditions for reform or a negotiated transition.
“I think it’s just going to fall,” Trump said when asked whether military action was imminent. “Looks like it’s going down for the count.”
Reports from independent Cuban outlet 14ymedio have described increased military patrols and neighborhood visits by counterintelligence agents near military installations in Havana following U.S. actions in Venezuela and Iran. Díaz-Canel has reportedly increased military exercises despite constraints tied to aging equipment.
More than 2 million Cubans have left the island over the past five years, according to migration estimates. Those remaining have faced recurring power outages, limited gasoline supplies, and rising food prices. One Havana resident said of a nearby military installation, “The only thing they have there is hunger.”
Public opinion within Cuba appears mixed. Some civic and religious leaders have urged dialogue to avoid civilian harm, while others have expressed support for stronger external pressure on the government.
Cuba has played a prominent role in U.S. foreign policy history, from the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion authorized under President John F. Kennedy to the Cuban Missile Crisis. In 2015, former President Barack Obama reopened diplomatic channels and expanded travel and commercial engagement with Havana, signaling a strategy of gradual liberalization through contact. Trump reversed many of those policies during his first term.
Cuban officials have said they are open to dialogue, but only “without pressure or preconditions.”
As geopolitical shifts unfold in Latin America and the Middle East, the administration’s posture toward Cuba signals a renewed chapter in a decades-long relationship shaped by confrontation, negotiation, and periodic thaw.
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