By Elsie Kamsiyochi
PARIS – France will significantly expand its nuclear arsenal and formally extend elements of its nuclear deterrent to a group of European allies, President Emmanuel Macron announced in what officials describe as the most consequential shift in French strategic doctrine in more than six decades.
Speaking at the Île Longue submarine base near Brest in Brittany — home to France’s nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines — Macron said the country must adapt to what he called a dramatically deteriorating global security environment.
“The next 50 years will be an era of nuclear weapons,” he told an audience of naval officers, standing in front of one of France’s strategic submarines. “We must ensure that peace on our continent rests on credible, modern and shared deterrence.”
Expanding the Arsenal
Macron confirmed that France would increase the number of nuclear warheads beyond the current estimated stockpile of around 300 and would cease publicly disclosing precise figures, citing the need for strategic ambiguity.
He also announced that a new nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, to be named The Invincible, will enter service in 2036 as part of a long-term modernization programme. The vessel will reinforce France’s sea-based deterrent, widely regarded as the backbone of its nuclear posture.
France’s nuclear doctrine has historically rested on two pillars: submarine-launched ballistic missiles and air-delivered nuclear weapons carried by the Strategic Air Forces (Forces Aériennes Stratégiques). Both components are now set to be strengthened.
A New “Advanced Deterrence” Framework
In a landmark development, Macron revealed that eight European countries — the UK, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark — have agreed to participate in what he termed an “advanced deterrence” initiative.
Under the new framework:
- Partner countries may take part in French nuclear exercises.
- France’s nuclear-capable aircraft could be stationed at allied air bases across Europe.
- Participating states would contribute to supporting capabilities, including missile defence, space-based early warning systems and long-range conventional strike capacity.
The goal, Macron said, is to “spread out across the depth of the European continent and thus complicate the calculations of our adversaries.”
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk welcomed the move, writing that Europe was “arming up together with our friends so that our enemies will never dare to attack us.”
Shortly after the speech, France and Germany issued a joint declaration pledging closer cooperation on nuclear deterrence, including German participation in French exercises later this year.
Continuity and Change Since De Gaulle
French officials describe the initiative as the most significant evolution in strategic thinking since President Charles de Gaulle established France’s independent nuclear force — the force de frappe — in 1960.
Yet Macron stressed that the core principle remains unchanged: deterrence is about convincing potential adversaries that any attack on France would trigger consequences so severe that it would never be attempted.
“If they have the audacity to attack France,” he said, “there will be an unsustainable price to be paid.”
Importantly, the French president will retain sole authority over any decision to use nuclear weapons. Unlike NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangements, there will be no formal guarantee obliging France to respond automatically on behalf of partner states.
Instead, the extension of deterrence rests on strategic ambiguity — a hallmark of French doctrine. For decades, Paris has deliberately avoided specifying what constitutes its “vital interests,” an attack on which would justify nuclear retaliation. Macron’s new framework gives greater shape to the idea that European security is increasingly intertwined with those interests, without explicitly redefining them.
Complementing NATO, Not Replacing It
France and its partners emphasized that the initiative is intended to complement, not replace, NATO’s nuclear deterrent structure, which is anchored by the United States and supported by the United Kingdom — Europe’s only other nuclear-armed state.
France already maintains close cooperation with the UK on nuclear matters, and British officials have recently participated in French nuclear exercises for the first time. The new European framework signals a broader ambition: strengthening continental defence capabilities at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
Macron has repeatedly warned of growing threats from Russia and China, as well as shifting U.S. strategic priorities. The war in Ukraine, tensions in the Indo-Pacific and questions over long-term American commitments to European security have all fed calls within the EU for greater strategic autonomy.
Strategic Ambiguity and Future Uncertainty
Under the revised doctrine, France will no longer publicly state how many nuclear warheads it possesses — a move designed to enhance deterrence by increasing uncertainty for potential adversaries.
At the same time, Macron underscored that nuclear weapons remain weapons of last resort. The objective, he said, is not escalation but prevention.
“Our responsibility,” he said, “is to ensure that no one ever believes Europe can be threatened or attacked without consequence.”
The announcement marks a profound shift in Europe’s security architecture. Whether it ultimately reshapes deterrence dynamics on the continent will depend on how allies operationalize the new arrangements — and how rivals interpret France’s message.
For now, Macron’s declaration signals that in an era he believes will be defined by renewed great-power rivalry, France intends to place its nuclear arsenal at the heart of Europe’s defence strategy.
Source BBC
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