BY COMFORT OGBONNA
OPEC+ is considering a larger-than-expected increase in oil production when key members meet on Sunday, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.
The move comes as leading producers, including Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries heavyweight Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have already ramped up exports in anticipation of possible supply disruptions following the recent U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran.
Eight members of the broader OPEC+ alliance — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — are scheduled to convene at 1100 GMT to review production policy. Delegates had previously indicated the group was leaning toward approving a modest output increase of 137,000 barrels per day in April. That adjustment was initially framed as a measured response to rising seasonal demand and strengthening crude prices.
Oil markets have been on edge in recent weeks amid expectations of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Those concerns intensified after the United States launched a strike on Iran on Saturday, fueling fears that regional hostilities could disrupt crude exports from one of the world’s key energy-producing hubs. Traders have responded by pushing prices higher, reflecting the risk premium attached to potential supply interruptions.
An April production boost would formally end a three-month pause in output hikes, signaling renewed confidence among producers that global demand can absorb additional barrels. The summer driving season in the United States — traditionally a period of heightened fuel consumption — is also approaching, adding to expectations of stronger near-term demand.
While a modest increase had been the working assumption, discussions about a more substantial hike are now gaining traction. One source close to the talks said the scale of any larger adjustment has not yet been finalized, underscoring that negotiations remain fluid. Both sources requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the deliberations.
Signs suggest that some producers may have already begun quietly expanding supply. Market data and trading flows indicate that major Middle Eastern exporters increased shipments in recent weeks as the likelihood of a U.S. strike on Iran grew. This preemptive move appears designed to reassure consumers and stabilize markets in case Iranian exports are curtailed.
In particular, Abu Dhabi’s national oil company is expected to ship higher volumes of its flagship Murban crude in April, according to trading sources. Saudi Arabia has also raised production and exports as part of a contingency plan to mitigate potential supply shocks and maintain its role as a stabilizing force in global oil markets.
Previously, the eight OPEC+ members had agreed to raise production quotas by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December 2025, representing roughly 3% of global oil demand. However, they paused additional increases from January through March 2026 due to seasonal demand weakness and softer market conditions.
Sunday’s meeting is now viewed as a critical test of the alliance’s strategy. A decision to accelerate output growth would signal a proactive approach to managing geopolitical risks and curbing excessive price spikes.
Conversely, a cautious increase could reflect ongoing uncertainty about the durability of demand and the evolving security landscape in the Middle East. Markets will be watching closely for any indication of how decisively OPEC+ intends to respond to the latest developments.
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