An Emerson College survey finds Vice President JD Vance with a commanding Republican primary advantage and Gov. Gavin Newsom narrowly ahead in a fragmented Democrat contest, as Democrats gain ground on the 2026 congressional ballot.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
A newly released national survey from Emerson College Polling provides an early look at the 2028 presidential race, showing Vice President JD Vance holding a dominant position among Republican voters while California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads a divided Democrat primary field.
In the Democratic contest, Newsom draws 20% support. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg follows with 16%, and Vice President Kamala Harris receives 13%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez posts 9%, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro registers 7%, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear stands at 5%. Nearly one-quarter of Democratic voters — 24% — remain undecided.
The data indicate that no single Democrat has consolidated the party at this stage, though demographic patterns suggest emerging bases of support.
“Candidates are starting to carve out their 2028 bases,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Ocasio-Cortez records 20% among voters under 30, giving her a plurality with younger Democrats. Buttigieg performs strongest among women, capturing 20% of that group, and leads voters with postgraduate degrees at 21%. Newsom’s support is most pronounced among voters over age 50, where he reaches 23%. Harris posts her strongest numbers among Black voters, earning 36% of that demographic.
The 24% undecided share suggests the field remains fluid and subject to change as the cycle develops.
On the Republican side, Vance registers 52% support in the primary matchup, more than doubling his closest competitor. Secretary of State Marco Rubio receives 20%, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis draws 6%, while 11% remain undecided.
Among self-identified Republicans, Vance’s advantage expands to 59%, compared to Rubio’s 19%. Independents who say they plan to participate in the Republican primary favor Vance 33% to 23% over Rubio.
Kimball noted that Vance’s backing within the Republican base appears more consolidated than the Democrat field at this point.
Beyond the presidential landscape, the poll shows Democrats gaining an advantage on the generic congressional ballot ahead of the 2026 midterms. When asked which party they would support for Congress, 50% of respondents chose the Democrat candidate, compared to 42% for the Republican — an 8-point margin and a 2-point increase from the prior month’s survey.
Independents break toward Democrats 50% to 37%, a shift that could carry significance in competitive districts.
The survey also measured issue priorities. Respondents ranked cost of living highest, with a mean importance score of 8.2 on a 10-point scale. Healthcare costs followed at 7.8, inflation at 7.6, deportation policy at 7.1, healthcare access at 6.9, and border security at 6.3.
Partisan differences were pronounced. Democrats rated healthcare costs at 8.6 and placed border security lowest at 4.9. Republicans ranked border security at 8.3 and deportation policy at 8.2. Independents aligned most closely with the broader electorate in prioritizing cost of living concerns at 8.2.
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted Feb. 21-22 among 1,000 U.S. likely voters. The poll carries a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, comparable to a traditional margin of error.
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