U.S. President Donald Trump recently publicly stated that he is “discussing” arms sales to Taiwan with Chinese President Xi Jinping, describing their conversation as “good” and saying that the U.S. will soon announce related decisions. These remarks have caused a stir in Washington and internationally, drawing intense attention and varying interpretations from U.S. policymakers, academics, and foreign affairs observers.
On Feb. 16, during an interview with the media on board Air Force One while returning to Washington, Trump was asked about arms sales to Taiwan. He said, “I’ve talked to Xi about this. We had a very good call, and we will make a decision soon.” However, White House officials later reiterated that U.S. policy toward Taiwan has not changed, emphasizing that America’s arms sales and security commitments to Taiwan remain steadfast.
According to publicly available information, the most recent call between Trump and Xi took place on Feb. 4. At that time, Trump posted online that he and Xi discussed many topics, including trade, the military, his planned visit to China in April, Taiwan, the Russia–Ukraine war, the situation in Iran, China’s purchase of U.S. oil and gas, and Beijing’s potential increase in U.S. agricultural purchases—but he did not mention any specific discussions related to Taiwan.
According to a report by China’s state media Xinhua, Xi emphasized that the Taiwan issue is the most important topic in U.S.-China relations and that the U.S. must handle arms sales to Taiwan cautiously. Trump said he values China’s concerns on Taiwan and would maintain stable U.S.-China relations during his term.
Trump uses strategy to balance US-Taiwan and US-Beijing relations
Trump’s recent remarks have drawn attention. Analysts suggest that Trump may be using such public statements as a negotiation tactic, a common strategy of his, to increase flexibility in high-level U.S.-China interactions. At the same time, he is calling on the U.S. Congress to quickly review the defense budget for the new fiscal year to demonstrate Taiwan’s commitment to strengthening its self-defense.
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Alexander Gray, who served as White House National Security Council staff director during Trump’s first term, said that based on publicly observed information, he believes Trump is “skillfully balancing his historically significant support for Taiwan with his desire to achieve trade balance with China.”
Gray added that while Trump may sometimes use statements as a “balancing act” strategically, even as he navigates challenges in U.S.-China relations, the “positive relationship” between the U.S. and Taiwan will continue.
US Congress calls to codify the ‘Six Assurances’ to Taiwan
According to the Central News Agency, Richard Bush, former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) and now a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that the U.S. State Department cable sent in August 1982 to then-AIT director James Lilley is the origin of today’s so-called “Six Assurances.” The cable stated that the U.S. “has not agreed to consult the People’s Republic of China regarding arms sales to Taiwan.”
Bush explained that the wording “has not agreed” leaves some ambiguity, implying that there could theoretically be a future agreement, but in practice, he believes the U.S. has never sought prior consultation. He considers this “good policy.”
Gray noted that the “Six Assurances” document did not use words like “would not,” but it is generally understood that President Ronald Reagan’s original intent was to prohibit negotiations with Beijing over arms sales to Taiwan.
In 1982, the U.S. and China signed the “August 17 Communiqué” on Taiwan arms sales. To reduce the impact on Taiwan, Reagan had Lilley and others present the “Six Assurances” to then-President Chiang Ching-kuo.
Some U.S. Congress members and academics have also called for long-standing “Six Assurances” to Taiwan to be codified into law.
Additionally, many international commentators are watching to see whether this will affect the upcoming Trump–Xi talks in April. Trump plans to visit China in April, and Xi may later visit the U.S., with leaders facing sensitive issues including trade, military, and regional security.
At the end of last year, the Trump administration announced a major $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan—Trump’s second announcement of arms sales during his second term. On the economic front, Taiwan and the U.S. recently completed tariff negotiations and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on investment cooperation and a reciprocal trade agreement covering tariff reductions, U.S. product purchases, and supply chain cooperation.
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