An internal immigration risk analysis indicates Spain’s proposed legalization program may extend far beyond official estimates, potentially affecting more than one million migrants.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
An internal risk assessment by Spanish law enforcement agencies has concluded that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s proposed amnesty for illegal migrants could result in as many as 1.35 million people receiving residency status—far exceeding public projections issued by the government.
The analysis, prepared by Spain’s National Immigration and Borders Centre in coordination with the General Immigration and Borders Commissariat of the National Police, estimates that between 750,000 and one million migrants currently residing in Spain without legal status could qualify for residency permits under the plan. The document also suggests that an additional 250,000 to 350,000 asylum seekers may attempt to obtain legal status.
The findings were reported by El Confidencial, which published details of the CNIF report. The internal estimate contrasts with statements made by Sánchez in an opinion piece for the New York Times, in which he said the measure would apply to roughly 500,000 individuals. The CNIF report itself was published by the news outlet.
According to the assessment, the proposed legalization could function as a “pull factor,” potentially encouraging additional migration flows. The report warned that migrants residing elsewhere in the European Union might seek Spanish residency permits, which would allow them to remain in other Schengen-area countries under the bloc’s open-border framework.
The CNIF analysis further cautioned that the amnesty could raise overall immigration levels due to what it described as an “international perception of Spain as a more permissive country with irregular immigration.” It noted that the proposal has already generated significant media attention, particularly in Latin America.
Public reaction within Spain appears divided. A survey conducted by pollster SocioMétrica found that nearly seven in ten Spaniards oppose granting residency permits under the amnesty plan. Opposition was strongest among respondents aged 17 to 35, with more than 89 percent expressing disapproval.
Despite criticism, members of the left-wing Podemos party have defended the proposal. A Podemos Member of the European Parliament stated: “I wish for replacement theory, I wish we could sweep this country of fascists and racists with migrants, with working people… Of course, I want there to be replacement: replacement of fascists, replacement of racists, replacement of freeloaders, and that we can do it with working people, whatever their skin colour may be.”
The amnesty proposal remains under review as debate continues over its potential demographic, economic, and political effects.
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