Separatist organizers pursue referendum threshold while Washington confirms meetings but denies offering support or commitments.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
A citizen-led campaign to hold an Alberta independence referendum is accelerating as organizers seek to gather enough signatures to force a provincial vote, while recent contacts between U.S. officials and separatist representatives have prompted diplomatic scrutiny on both sides of the border.
The Alberta Prosperity Project, a group aligned with the separatist movement, is working to collect approximately 177,000 signatures by May 2 — equal to 10% of Alberta’s registered voters — the legal threshold required to initiate a citizen-led referendum on separation, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal.
Organizers and supporters told Reuters they are seeking full independence for Alberta rather than U.S. statehood, even as some participants have expressed admiration for President Donald Trump.
In January, Alberta activists met with U.S. State Department officials in Washington to discuss how the administration might respond if Alberta were to pursue independence. A White House official told Reuters that U.S. officials regularly meet with civil society groups and that “no support or commitments” were conveyed. A State Department official confirmed that staff-level meetings took place but indicated no additional meetings were planned.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he expects Washington to respect Canada’s sovereignty. “We expect the U.S. administration to respect Canadian sovereignty. I’m always clear in my conversations with President Trump to that effect,” Carney told reporters, adding that Trump had not raised Alberta separatism during their discussions.
Despite the renewed activism, polling suggests the independence movement remains a minority position within Alberta, a province that accounts for most of Canada’s oil and gas production.
A January survey conducted by Leger found that 71% of Alberta residents wanted to remain part of Canada, while nearly one in five supported Alberta becoming an independent country, according to the Leger poll.
Polling released Feb. 9 by the Angus Reid Institute reported that 29% of respondents would vote to leave Canada, compared with 65% who would vote to remain. Of those surveyed, 8% said they would “definitely” vote to leave, while 57% said they would “definitely” vote to stay, according to the Angus Reid Institute report.
Ipsos found similar levels of initial support. In a Jan. 25 release, Ipsos said about 29% of Albertans initially indicated they would vote to begin the separation process. However, when respondents were asked to consider potential economic and political consequences in a “stress test,” committed support declined to approximately 15% to 16%, according to the Ipsos release.
Separatist advocates argue that federal policies in Ottawa have disadvantaged Alberta economically. Supporters cite regulatory limits on oil production, federal fiscal transfers, and what they describe as disproportionate taxation burdens. The Wall Street Journal reported that organizers frame independence as a remedy to what they view as restrictive federal oversight.
Opponents, including legal experts and First Nations leaders, have cautioned that separation would be legally complex and disruptive, particularly in light of treaty obligations and constitutional requirements.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has taken steps to lower the barriers for triggering referendums while maintaining that she supports “Alberta sovereignty within a united Canada.”
Fiscal arguments remain central to the separatist case. Commentary from the Fraser Institute outlines what it describes as Alberta’s disproportionate fiscal contribution to the federation. In a recent analysis, the institute cited Statistics Canada data indicating Alberta made a net $285.1 billion contribution to the federal government between 2007 and 2024, referencing official figures from Statistics Canada.
For now, while the petition drive continues and political rhetoric intensifies, public opinion data indicates that most Albertans remain opposed to leaving Canada, even as the issue remains a prominent and polarizing topic within the province and beyond.
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