The nation’s electric reliability watchdog says growing dependence on wind and solar, combined with rising demand and plant retirements, is sharply increasing the risk of winter blackouts across much of the United States.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation warned Thursday that the U.S. power grid is facing a mounting risk of winter blackouts as electricity demand rises and coal- and natural gas-fired power plants are retired faster than reliable replacements can be secured, according to an analysis by Just the News.
In its annual long-term reliability assessment, the organization said conditions across the bulk power system are deteriorating, with nearly half the country projected to face heightened outage risks over the next decade. “The overall resource adequacy outlook for the North American BPS is worsening,” the watchdog stated, noting that in the current assessment “13 of 23 assessment areas face resource adequacy challenges over the next 10 years,” according to the NERC report.
The warning follows January’s Winter Storm Fern, during which several regions of the U.S. grid approached the point where electricity demand threatened to exceed available supply. NERC cautioned that continued shutdowns of fossil-fuel generation, combined with heavier reliance on intermittent wind and solar resources, could make such close calls more frequent and more severe during periods of extreme cold.
Language grows more dire each year
NERC said electricity demand is accelerating due to factors including data center expansion, while grid planners increasingly rely on weather-dependent resources to meet that demand. At the same time, coal- and natural gas-fired plants that provide dispatchable power are scheduled for retirement over the next five years. “The continuing shift in the resource mix toward weather-dependent resources and less fuel diversity increases risks of supply shortfalls during winter months,” the organization warned.
The tone of NERC’s assessments has become progressively more urgent. In its 2019 long-term reliability assessment, the agency described the transition as challenging but manageable, stating that “with appropriate insight, careful planning, and continued support, the electricity sector will continue to navigate the associated challenges in a manner that maintains reliability and resilience.”
By 2023, NERC warned that large portions of the grid would be strained during periods of high demand, saying the bulk power system was “on the cusp of large-scale growth” while already undergoing “unprecedented change.” In last year’s assessment, the language grew starker, warning that most of the grid faced “mounting resource adequacy challenges” as demand surged and thermal generators announced retirement plans.
Fossil-powered plant retirements
The latest assessment projects that by 2030, roughly half of the U.S. grid will face either elevated or high blackout risk, including Texas, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, and central Atlantic states.
Isaac Orr, vice president of research at Always On Energy Research, described the findings as “startling.” The report estimates electricity demand will rise by about 245 gigawatts over the next decade, representing roughly 35% growth. By comparison, Orr noted that total electricity sales increased just 6% between 2010 and 2024.
NERC urged policymakers and utilities to “keep plans for deactivating existing generators flexible.” Orr interpreted the warning bluntly: “Translated into English: If the first rule of holes is to stop digging, the first rule of electric grid reliability is to stop shutting down reliable power plants, including those powered by coal.”
Grid performance during winter storm
Winter Storm Fern provided a recent test of grid resilience. While some consumers experienced outages, NERC said those were not primarily caused by insufficient generation. Analysts, however, said the storm revealed vulnerabilities.
Orr and Mitch Rolling, research director at Always On Energy Research, wrote on their “Energy Bad Boys” Substack that the storm produced “close calls and some uncomfortable lessons” in several regions. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which manages the grid across much of the central U.S., nearly resorted to load shedding to avoid blackouts.
They attributed the risk in part to collapsing wind output, which fell from roughly 60% of capacity to just 7% during the storm. In New England, the grid remained operational by burning oil. At one point Saturday evening, the region generated 37% of its electricity from oil, 25% from natural gas, 17% from nuclear, 12% from hydroelectric, and 8% from renewables, according to Meredith Angwin, a retired utility chemist and author of “Shorting the Grid.”
Under normal conditions, oil supplies only about 0.4% of U.S. electricity generation, largely in Hawaii. During the storm, New England also lost access to Canadian hydroelectric imports as Canada retained power to meet its own demand, forcing the region to rely on oil-fired generation to prevent grid collapse.
In Texas, energy consultant Kerry Clapp wrote on his “A Pragmatic Approach to Energy” Substack that wind and solar outages increased as temperatures fell, while battery storage contributed a “negligible” amount of power. Coal, natural gas, and nuclear plants carried most of the load, Clapp said.
Policy choices matter
Orr and Rolling said decisions earlier this year by Energy Secretary Chris Wright that kept several coal plants running may have helped avert shortages during the storm. While output data is not yet available, they said three plants in Michigan and Indiana that were spared retirement could have produced nearly as much electricity as MISO’s entire wind fleet during a critical period when wind output collapsed.
Orr said Winter Storm Fern demonstrates that NERC’s warnings are not theoretical. “NERC’s analysis is a clear warning that surging electricity demand and announced generator retirements mean much of the United States may not be able to avoid rolling blackouts during the next winter storm,” he said. “However, it is important to understand that this outcome is not a foregone conclusion and that policy choices matter.”
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