U.S. Population Decline Could Begin Years Earlier Than Expected as Net Migration Plummets

Revised federal data and independent projections indicate the United States could enter population decline years earlier than expected as net migration falls sharply.

By yourNEWS Media Newsroom

The United States may record its first-ever population decline as soon as this year, decades earlier than previously forecast, as reduced immigration sharply alters long-standing demographic trends, according to new estimates from federal agencies and independent researchers cited by Bloomberg.

For decades, U.S. population growth has depended on immigration to offset declining birth rates and increasing deaths driven by an aging population. Analysts now say policies implemented during the second term of President Donald Trump have accelerated a demographic inflection point that had long been projected to occur much later in the century.

In its most recent long-range outlook released in 2023, the U.S. Census Bureau projected that the national population would not begin shrinking until 2081. Updated data and revised modeling now suggest that timeline may have shifted forward by decades.

The Census Bureau reported that in the year ending July 1, 2025, the U.S. population increased by just 0.5%, or 1.8 million people, the slowest growth rate since the COVID-19 pandemic. Officials attributed the slowdown primarily to a sharp reduction in net migration, which fell to 1.3 million from 2.7 million the previous year.

During the same period, births exceeded deaths by 519,000, a surplus that continues to narrow as fertility remains low and mortality rises. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that by around 2030, deaths will outnumber births, leaving immigration as the only remaining source of population growth.

Census officials now expect net migration to decline further, to approximately 316,000 in the year ending July 2026, with the agency warning that the country is “trending toward negative net migration.”

Independent researchers say the shift may already be underway. An analysis by economists at the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution estimates that net migration may have turned negative in 2025, with the immigrant population declining by between 10,000 and 295,000 people.

Looking ahead to this year, the researchers project net immigration could range from a gain of 185,000 to a loss of as many as 925,000 people. Those estimates were made before additional legal immigration restrictions were announced this year.

If net migration drops far enough to outweigh the shrinking surplus of births over deaths, the overall U.S. population would decline. At the low end of the researchers’ projections, the population would fall by more than 400,000 people this year.

“We could be at around zero or negative on population,” said Tara Watson, director of the Brookings Center for Economic Security and Opportunity and a co-author of the analysis.

Since the first U.S. census in 1790, demographers say a nationwide population decline has never been formally recorded. The only possible exception may have occurred in 1918, when the Spanish flu pandemic and the overseas deployment of millions of U.S. troops during World War I may have temporarily reduced the domestic population.

Economists caution that the effects of lower immigration and a potential population decline would likely unfold gradually, weighing on labor force growth, economic expansion, and public finances over time rather than causing immediate disruption.

The Trump administration maintains that reduced immigration will benefit native-born workers and ease pressure on housing markets and public services. The White House has pointed to workforce training initiatives and expanded access to temporary worker visas as measures intended to offset potential labor shortages.