BY COMFORT OGBONNA
OPEC+ is expected to keep its pause on planned oil output increases for March when it meets on Sunday, according to several delegates familiar with the discussions, even as crude prices climb above the $70-a-barrel mark amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Eight key members of the OPEC+ alliance, which together account for roughly half of global oil production, are set to review market conditions after Brent crude surged to nearly $72 a barrel, its highest level since August. The rally has come despite earlier expectations that a potential supply glut would weigh on prices, underscoring how geopolitical risks and supply disruptions continue to dominate market sentiment.
The group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — had gradually raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025, representing roughly 3% of global oil demand. However, further increases scheduled for early 2026 were put on hold due to seasonally weaker consumption and concerns about market balance. That pause currently covers the period from January through March 2026.
Three of the five delegates said the upcoming meeting is unlikely to result in any decisions extending beyond March, suggesting the group remains cautious and prefers to reassess conditions closer to the spring, when demand typically improves. All of the delegates requested anonymity, citing a lack of authorisation to speak publicly about internal deliberations.
OPEC and officials in Saudi Arabia and Russia did not immediately respond to requests for comment, maintaining their usual silence ahead of policy meetings. Alongside the main gathering, a separate meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is also scheduled for Sunday. While the committee plays a key role in assessing compliance with production targets and monitoring market trends, it does not have the authority to make binding decisions on output levels.
Oil prices have drawn additional support from heightened tensions involving Iran, a member of OPEC. U.S. President Donald Trump has stepped up pressure on Tehran over its nuclear programme, warning of possible military action and ordering the deployment of a U.S. naval group to the region. Washington has already imposed sweeping sanctions on Iran aimed at cutting off its oil exports, a major source of government revenue.
Recent reports have indicated that the U.S. administration is weighing the option of targeted strikes against security officials and senior figures in Iran in an effort to stir internal unrest and weaken the ruling system. The prospect of such action has raised fears of supply disruptions in the oil-rich region, pushing prices higher despite otherwise ample global supplies.
Beyond geopolitical concerns, supply issues elsewhere have also helped underpin prices. Kazakhstan, one of the eight OPEC+ producers involved in the meeting, has faced a series of oil sector disruptions in recent months. Although the country announced this week that it has begun restarting the massive Tengiz oilfield in stages, the earlier outages have contributed to tighter-than-expected supply and added further support to the market.
Taken together, rising geopolitical risks, lingering supply disruptions and cautious demand growth appear to be reinforcing OPEC+’s preference for stability. By maintaining its current pause on output increases, the group is signalling that it remains focused on preventing another bout of oversupply, even as prices recover to levels not seen in several months.
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