Portugal Heads to Presidential Runoff as Far-Right Leader Scores Historic Second Place

BY Rosemary

Portugal’s presidential election has set the stage for a closely watched runoff after the leader of a hard-right populist party surged into second place, marking one of the most striking electoral advances yet for the far right in Western Europe.

With nearly all ballots counted on Sunday, André Ventura, the founder and leader of the Chega party, secured about 24% of the vote, finishing behind center-left Socialist candidate António José Seguro, who led the first round with just under 31%. As no candidate reached the absolute majority required for an outright victory, the two will face each other in a second-round vote scheduled for Feb. 8.

Ventura’s result represents a dramatic political moment in a country that, until recently, had largely resisted the populist wave sweeping much of Europe. Chega, founded less than seven years ago, has rapidly transformed from a fringe movement into a major political force, tapping into voter discontent and reshaping Portugal’s traditionally moderate political landscape.

The party’s rise was already evident in last year’s parliamentary elections, when Chega became the second-largest force in the legislature, breaking the long-standing dominance of Portugal’s two main parties: the center-right Social Democratic Party and the center-left Socialist Party. Ventura’s strong presidential showing now reinforces that shift and aligns Portugal more closely with trends seen in countries such as France, Germany, Italy and neighboring Spain, where nationalist and populist parties have either gained power or moved closer to it.

A record field of candidates competed in Sunday’s election, with nine others on the ballot, but none came close to challenging the two front-runners. The vote will ultimately determine who succeeds President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who is stepping down after completing the constitutional limit of two five-year terms.

Ventura’s campaign has been built around sharp attacks on immigration, a subject that has become increasingly visible in Portugal as foreign workers arrive to fill labor shortages. His rhetoric, including slogans such as “Portugal is ours,” and billboards declaring “This isn’t Bangladesh” and arguing that immigrants should not rely on welfare, has pushed political boundaries in a country where such overt language was rarely heard in mainstream debate just a few years ago.

While immigration has been central to Ventura’s message, surveys and analysts suggest many voters are more immediately concerned about rising living costs and a deepening housing crisis, particularly in Lisbon and other major cities where prices have soared. Those economic pressures have contributed to broader frustration with the political establishment and helped create space for Chega’s rapid ascent.

The next president will inherit a challenging domestic environment. Portugal has endured a prolonged period of political instability, holding three general elections in as many years, its most turbulent stretch in decades. Restoring a sense of continuity and public confidence will be a central task for whoever wins the runoff.

Several sensitive issues are also likely to land on the next president’s desk, including legislation on euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide. Although parliament approved the law in 2022, constitutional challenges have delayed its enactment, leaving the final decision to the head of state.

In Portugal’s political system, the presidency is largely non-executive, with the prime minister and government holding day-to-day power. The president is expected to act as a neutral arbiter, standing above party politics and helping to mediate disputes. Yet the role carries significant influence. The president can veto legislation, forcing parliament to reconsider laws, and holds the authority to dissolve parliament and call early elections, a power often described in Portuguese political shorthand as the ultimate constitutional weapon.

While developments in Lisbon are unlikely to shift the overall direction of the European Union—Portugal has one of the bloc’s smaller economies and a modest military—the election is being closely watched as another indicator of the far right’s expanding reach across the continent.

The runoff on Feb. 8 will decide who occupies the presidency for the next five years, based in the riverside presidential residence in Lisbon, and whether Portugal continues its long tradition of centrist leadership or charts a more disruptive and polarizing political course.