Oceans shape everyday life in powerful ways. They , carry 90% of global trade, and support millions of jobs and the diets of billions of people. As global competition intensifies and climate change accelerates, the world’s oceans are also becoming the front line of 21st-century geopolitics.
How policymakers handle these challenges will affect food supplies, the price of goods and national security.
Right now, international cooperation is under strain, but there are many ways to help keep the peace. The tools of diplomacy range from formal international agreements, like the for protecting marine life, which goes into effect on Jan. 17, 2026, to deals between countries, to efforts led by companies, scientists and issue-focused organizations.
Examples of each can be found in how the world is dealing with rising tensions over Arctic shipping, seafloor mining and overfishing. As researchers in international trade and diplomacy at Arizona State University in the Thunderbird School of Global Management’s , we work with groups affected by ocean pressures like these to identify diplomatic tools – both inside and outside government – that can help avoid conflict.
Arctic shipping: New sea lanes, new risks
As the Arctic Ocean’s , that were once impassable most of the year are opening up.
For companies, these routes – such as the along Russia’s coast and the through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago – promise shorter transit times, lower fuel costs and fewer choke points than traditional passages.
However, Arctic shipping also raises complex challenges.
The U.S., Russia, China and several European countries have each in the Arctic Ocean, often with and . For example, to much of the Barents Sea while it conducted missile tests near Norway in 2025. the same sea.
Geopolitical tensions compound the practical dangers in Arctic waters that are , where and where .
As more commercial vessels move through these waters, a serious incident – whether triggered by a political confrontation or weather – could be difficult to contain and costly for marine ecosystems and global supply chains.
The Arctic Council is the region’s primary official forum for the Arctic countries to work together, but it – the very pressures now reshaping Arctic shipping.
The for over a year starting in 2022 after Russia, then the Arctic Council president, invaded Ukraine. While meetings and projects involving the remaining countries have since resumed, the council’s influence has been undercut by by the Trump administration and Russia, and between countries, including Russia and China, often involving access to oil, gas and critical mineral deposits.
In this context, Arctic countries can strengthen cooperation through other channels. An important one is science.
For decades, scientists from the U.S., Europe, Russia and other countries related to public safety and the environment, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine .
Going forward, countries could share more data on ice thaw, extreme weather and emergency response to help prevent accidents in a rapidly opening shipping corridor.
Critical minerals: Control over the seabed
The global transition to clean energy is driving for critical minerals, such as nickel, cobalt, manganese and rare earth elements, that are essential for everything from smartphones and batteries to fighter jets. Some of the world’s largest untapped deposits , in places like the Clarion-Clipperton Zone near Hawaii in the Pacific. This has sparked and .
Harvesting critical minerals from the seabed could help meet demand at a time when much of the global critical mineral supply. But deep-sea ecosystems are poorly understood, and disruptions from mining would have . Forty either a ban or a pause on deep sea mining until the risks are better understood.
These concerns sit alongside : Most deep-sea minerals lie in international waters, where competition over access and profits could become another front in global rivalry.
The International Seabed Authority was created under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to manage seabed resources, but its . The U.S. never ratified the convention, and the Trump administration is now to circumvent the international process and accelerate deep-sea mining in areas that are outside national jurisdictions.
Against this backdrop, a of issue-focused groups and companies have joined national governments in calling for a pause on deep-sea mining. At the same time, some to insure deep-sea mining projects.
Pressure from outside groups will not eliminate competition over seabed resources, but it can shape behavior by raising the costs of moving too quickly without carefully evaluating the risks. For example, , while BMW, Volvo and Google have produced from deep-sea mines until environmental risks are better understood.
Overfishing: When competition outruns cooperation
Fishing fleets have been ranging farther and fishing longer in recent decades, in many areas. For coastal communities, the result can crash fish stocks, threatening jobs in fishing and processing and degrading marine ecosystems, which makes coastal areas less attractive for tourism and recreation. When stocks decline, seafood prices also rise.
Unlike deep-sea mining or Arctic shipping, overfishing is prompting cooperation on many levels.
In 2025, a critical mass of countries , which sets out a legal framework for creating marine protected areas in international waters that could give species a chance to recover. Meanwhile, several countries have arrangements with their neighbors to manage fishing together.
For example, the European Union and U.K. are to set quotas for fleets operating in waters where fish stocks are shared. Likewise, Norway and Russia for the Barents Sea to try to limit overfishing. These government-led efforts are reinforced by other forms of diplomacy that operate outside government.
Market-based initiatives like the set common sustainability standards for fishing companies to meet. Many major retailers look for that certification when making purchases. Websites like monitor fishing activity in near real time, giving governments and advocacy groups data for action.
Collectively, these efforts make it harder for illegal fishing to hide.
How well countries are able to work together to update quotas, share data and enforce rules as warming oceans are found and will determine whether overfishing can be stopped.
Looking Ahead
At a time when international cooperation , agreements between countries and pressure from companies, insurers and issue-focused groups are essential for ensuring a healthy ocean for the future.
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