Updated estimates indicate more people left the United States than entered last year, marking a reversal not seen in decades and signaling potential economic effects.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
For the first time in at least 50 years, the United States experienced negative net migration in 2025, with more immigrants leaving the country than arriving, according to updated estimates released Tuesday by economists at the Brookings Institution.
Macroeconomic Implications of Immigration Flows in 2025 and 2026_ January 2026 Update _ Brookings by yourNEWS Media
The analysis, conducted by Brookings economists Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson alongside American Enterprise Institute economist Stan Veuger, estimates that net migration declined by between 10,000 and 295,000 last year, depending on modeling assumptions. The researchers attributed the shift primarily to a sharp slowdown in new arrivals, rather than removals alone.
While arrests and deportations by Immigration and Customs Enforcement have drawn significant attention, the economists said the larger factor was a reduction in inflows tied to President Donald Trump’s border and visa policies. Those policies included near-closure of the U.S.-Mexico border, tighter visa restrictions, higher application fees, and the winding down of humanitarian programs, including most refugee admissions.
Deportations also contributed to the decline. The researchers estimated roughly 300,000 deportations in 2025, below the approximately 600,000 cited by the Trump administration. Brookings also estimated between 200,000 and 400,000 voluntary departures among both authorized and unauthorized immigrants.
The Brookings findings differ from figures released last week by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which estimated net migration of roughly 400,000 in 2025. The discrepancy stems largely from differing assumptions about outflows, with the CBO model projecting fewer deportations and fewer voluntary departures than the Brookings approach.
Administration officials and immigration-restriction advocates have argued net migration was even more negative, pointing to higher estimates of departures and removals. The Department of Homeland Security said in December that 1.9 million undocumented immigrants voluntarily left the country since January 2025, a figure substantially higher than Brookings’ estimates. Official government migration data for 2025 are not expected until later this year and may still lack precise counts of departures.
Looking ahead, the economists said current trends suggest the U.S. could again see negative net migration in 2026, a development they warned could have measurable economic consequences. “The slowdown implies weaker employment, GDP, and consumer spending growth,” the authors wrote.
They estimated that reduced immigration could lower consumer spending by $60 billion to $110 billion across 2025 and 2026, potentially dampening inflation pressures even as job growth slows. The economists also cautioned that projections are increasingly uncertain due to “recent reductions in data transparency,” including a pause in State Department visa issuance statistics since May.
President Trump celebrated the trend last summer, before official migration data were available. “Promises Made. Promises Kept. NEGATIVE NET MIGRATION for the First Time in 50 Years!” he wrote on Truth Social.
The Brookings analysis noted that immigration had been accounting for nearly all U.S. population and workforce growth in recent years, amid aging demographics and declining fertility rates, underscoring the potential long-term implications of sustained negative net migration.
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