BY EMMANUEL OGBONNA
Oil prices edged lower on Monday as easing fears over supply disruptions from Iran offset recent geopolitical tensions, while investors also assessed prospects for a resumption of oil exports from Venezuela.
Brent crude futures slipped 9 cents to $63.25 a barrel by mid-morning in Europe, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 10 cents to $59.02 a barrel. The modest declines followed a strong rally last week, when both benchmarks climbed more than 3% in their biggest weekly gain since October.
Prices had risen sharply as Iran’s clerical leadership intensified its response to the largest wave of demonstrations the country has seen since 2022, raising concerns that prolonged unrest could threaten oil supply from the major OPEC producer. Those worries eased somewhat after Iranian officials moved to reassure markets.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said on Monday that the situation was now “under total control” following a spike in violence over the weekend. Speaking in comments released in English translation, Araqchi blamed what he described as external threats for inflaming tensions, accusing hostile rhetoric from Washington of encouraging attacks on protesters and security forces in an attempt to draw foreign intervention.
Rights groups have reported that more than 500 people have been killed during the unrest, underlining the seriousness of the situation even as Iranian authorities insist stability has been restored. In Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to meet with senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss potential policy options toward Tehran, keeping geopolitical risks firmly in focus for energy markets.
Analysts say that while recent developments have added a risk premium to oil prices, the market remains cautious about reacting too strongly without clear evidence of supply disruption. Some warn that investors may be underestimating the potential impact of a broader conflict involving Iran, particularly if it were to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil flows.
“The market wants to see actual disruption to supply before responding in a meaningful way,” said one energy analyst, noting that geopolitical risks often take time to be fully priced into futures markets.
At the same time, attention is turning to Venezuela, where oil exports are expected to resume following the removal of President Nicolás Maduro from power. President Trump said last week that the new authorities in Caracas are preparing to hand over as much as 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned oil to the United States, a development that could add fresh supply to an already well-stocked market.
The prospect of Venezuelan crude returning to international markets has triggered a scramble among oil traders and shipping firms to secure tankers and prepare operations at the country’s aging ports. Industry sources say companies are working to ensure that crude can be safely transferred from storage vessels and exported after years of underinvestment and logistical challenges. One major trading house has indicated that its first cargo could be loaded as early as next week.
Despite the competing geopolitical forces at play, analysts expect oil prices to remain largely rangebound unless there is a clear revival in global demand or a significant, sustained disruption to supply. Some market watchers say futures prices are increasingly reflecting concerns about oversupply as the industry looks toward 2026.
Investors are also keeping a close eye on risks linked to Russia’s energy sector, as attacks related to the war in Ukraine continue to target infrastructure and as the possibility of tougher U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and gas remains on the table.
For now, traders appear to be balancing headline-driven geopolitical risks against a broader narrative of ample supply and uncertain demand, leaving oil prices drifting lower after last week’s sharp gains.
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