Lawmakers face an imminent funding deadline, unresolved health care battles and growing election pressures as control of Congress hangs on a limited number of House and Senate races.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Congress is set to resume work this week confronting a crowded and politically volatile agenda that includes the risk of a partial government shutdown, unresolved health care legislation, and continued fallout from the release of files related to Jeffrey Epstein, all as both parties begin positioning for the 2026 midterm elections that will determine control of Capitol Hill.
Lawmakers left Washington for the holidays having passed only three of the 12 appropriations bills needed to fund the federal government for fiscal year 2026. Most federal agencies are still operating under fiscal year 2024 funding levels after Congress relied on four consecutive continuing resolutions instead of completing the regular appropriations process.
With the current continuing resolution set to expire Jan. 30, Congress has less than a month to pass the remaining nine appropriations bills or approve another temporary funding measure. Failure to act would result in a partial government shutdown. There is little appetite on Capitol Hill for another lapse in funding after the most recent shutdown lasted a record 43 days, beginning Oct. 1, 2025, when Democrats refused to support a fourth continuing resolution that did not include an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies.
After weeks of stalemate, enough Democrats voted to reopen the government, approving the continuing resolution and passing three appropriations bills as a minibus package. Progress stalled after that point. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has indicated he intends to bring a five-bill appropriations minibus to the floor when lawmakers return, though he is already facing pushback over specific earmarks.
In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., must also manage ongoing divisions over health care policy, particularly the now-expired enhancement of Obamacare premium tax credits that many lawmakers want reinstated. Even if such a bill passes the House, it is expected to fail in the Senate, which has already rejected a proposal to extend the subsidies. Senate Democrats oppose House Republicans’ alternative health care policies, while any bill that excludes the subsidies is unlikely to clear the Senate filibuster.
At the same time, Republicans are dealing with political fallout from the Epstein files. The Department of Justice has said it still has up to one million additional documents to release related to the deceased sex trafficker after Congress mandated full disclosure. Some of the released materials appear to implicate Donald Trump, though the Justice Department has said those allegations are unfounded. The files also reference high-profile Democrats, including Bill Clinton, and both parties are expected to continue using the issue politically as the new year begins.
2026 House battlefield
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will be on the ballot in the Nov. 3, 2026, midterm elections. Despite that, analysts predict only 66 districts have even a modest chance of becoming competitive. Republicans currently hold a 220–213 majority, with two vacancies.
The Cook Political Report rates 17 of those 66 races as true toss-ups, spread across states including Arizona, California, Pennsylvania and Washington.
In Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, a competitive race is expected after Republican Rep. David Schweikert announced a run for governor. Schweikert narrowly defeated Democrat Amish Shah in 2024. Shah is running again, alongside more than 20 individuals who have filed expressions of interest. Arizona Republican Party Chair Gina Swoboda has also filed and received an endorsement from Trump.
Another Arizona battleground is the 6th District, where Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani faces multiple Democratic challengers. The district backed Trump for president in 2024 while electing Democrat Ruben Gallego to the U.S. Senate. Arizona’s primary is Aug. 4.
California is expected to see several toss-up races following the passage of Proposition 50. In the 13th District, Democrat Rep. Adam Gray narrowly defeated Republican John Duarte in 2024. Republican Kevin Lincoln II, a former Stockton mayor who lost a 2024 race in another district, is running with endorsements from Trump and Johnson.
In California’s 22nd District, Republican Rep. David Valadao faces Democratic challengers including state Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains and school board trustee Randy Villegas. The 48th District will also be competitive, with Republican Rep. David Issa facing multiple Democratic challengers, including Ammar Campa-Najjar, who lost to Issa in 2020. California’s primary is June 2.
Pennsylvania’s 7th and 10th districts are also expected to be closely watched. Republican Ryan Mackenzie flipped the 7th District in 2024 and is now backed by policies he says support economic growth and border security. In the 10th District, Republican Rep. Scott Perry is seeking reelection after narrowly defeating Democrat Janelle Stelson, who is running again. Pennsylvania’s primary is May 19.
In Washington’s 3rd District, Republican state Sen. John Braun is challenging Democrat Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who won the seat in 2022 and retained it in 2024. Washington’s primary is Aug. 4.
Senate control at stake
Republicans hold a 53–47 majority in the U.S. Senate after flipping control in 2024. Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2026, the Cook Political Report identifies nine with the potential to become competitive, including four rated as toss-ups.
In Georgia, Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking reelection. Republicans Buddy Carter and Mike Collins are competing in the GOP primary, along with former college football coach Derek Dooley, who has been endorsed by Gov. Brian Kemp. Georgia’s primary is May 19.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term. Democratic Gov. Janet Mills is running, along with other Democratic challengers. Maine’s primary is June 9.
Michigan will see an open-seat race after Democrat Sen. Gary Peters announced his retirement. Multiple Democrats and Republicans have entered the race. Trump has endorsed Republican Mike Rogers, while Democrats include Reps. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow. Michigan’s primary is Aug. 4.
North Carolina will also feature an open Senate seat after Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announced he would not seek reelection. Democrat former Gov. Roy Cooper is expected to face Republican Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair endorsed by Trump. North Carolina’s primary is March 3.
As Congress reconvenes, lawmakers face immediate deadlines on government funding and health care while navigating politically sensitive investigations and a rapidly approaching election cycle. With only a limited number of competitive races expected to decide control of both chambers, the decisions made in the coming weeks are likely to reverberate well beyond the current session.
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