Economic Crisis and Regional Setbacks Fuel Widening Protests Across Iran

BY EMMANUEL OGBONNA

Widening protests across Iran, driven by a deepening economic crisis and mounting political grievances, are placing renewed pressure on the country’s theocratic leadership at a moment of unusual vulnerability for the Islamic Republic.

Demonstrations have spread steadily in recent days as Iran continues to absorb the aftershocks of a brief but intense conflict with Israel in June, during which the United States carried out airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The economic strain has been compounded since September, when the United Nations reimposed sanctions over Iran’s atomic program, accelerating the collapse of the national currency and intensifying public anger.

The Iranian rial has plunged to historic lows, now trading at roughly 1.4 million to the U.S. dollar, a free fall that has sharply reduced purchasing power for ordinary citizens. Prices for basic food items such as meat, rice and cooking oil have surged, while inflation has hovered near 40 percent annually, eroding wages and savings alike.

At the same time, Tehran’s influence across the Middle East has weakened. Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance,” a network of allied governments and militant groups cultivated over decades, has been severely degraded since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in late 2023. That regional decline has added to a growing sense inside Iran that the country is paying a high price abroad while conditions at home continue to deteriorate.

The unrest has also drawn pointed warnings from Washington. President Donald Trump said the United States was closely monitoring events in Iran and issued a stark caution to Tehran against the violent suppression of demonstrators. His remarks carried added weight following the recent capture by U.S. forces of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a longtime ally of Iran.

“We’re watching it very closely,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One late Sunday. “If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States.”

Human rights groups say the scope of the protests is significant. Demonstrations have been reported in more than 220 locations across 26 of Iran’s 31 provinces, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which relies on an extensive network inside the country. The group said at least 20 people have been killed and more than 990 arrested, figures that are difficult to independently verify but are broadly consistent with past episodes of unrest.

Assessing the full scale of the demonstrations remains challenging. Iranian state media has largely downplayed or ignored the protests, while online videos circulating on social platforms provide only fleeting glimpses of crowds, chants or the sound of gunfire. Journalists inside Iran operate under tight restrictions, often requiring official permission to travel and facing the risk of harassment or detention if they report on sensitive topics.

Despite those constraints, there are few signs the protests are abating. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on Saturday that “rioters must be put in their place,” a statement that echoed past hardline responses but appeared to do little to calm the streets.

The immediate trigger for the unrest has been economic hardship. The collapse of the rial has pushed up the cost of living across the country, squeezing families already struggling to cope with years of sanctions and mismanagement. In December, the government introduced a new pricing tier for subsidized gasoline, raising the cost of fuel that had long been among the cheapest in the world. Officials also announced that fuel prices would now be reviewed every three months, fueling fears of further increases.

The protests initially began among merchants in Tehran, before spreading to other cities and towns. While early demonstrations focused on economic demands, chants soon broadened into open criticism of the government and the political system. The anger has deep roots, particularly following the 2022 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in police custody, an event that sparked nationwide protests and left lasting resentment toward the authorities.

Iran’s regional position has also been badly shaken. Hamas has been devastated in Gaza by Israel’s military campaign. Hezbollah in Lebanon has lost much of its senior leadership and has struggled to maintain its deterrent power. In Syria, a swift offensive in December 2024 toppled President Bashar Assad, Tehran’s closest state ally, ending years of Iranian-backed influence there. Yemen’s Houthi rebels, another Iranian partner, have faced sustained airstrikes by Israel and the United States.

Although China remains a major purchaser of Iranian oil, it has offered no overt military backing. Russia, despite its reliance on Iranian drones in the war in Ukraine, has likewise refrained from providing decisive support to Tehran.

Concerns over Iran’s nuclear program continue to loom large in Western capitals. Iranian leaders insist the program is peaceful, but officials have increasingly hinted at the possibility of pursuing a nuclear weapon. Prior to the U.S. strikes in June, Iran had been enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels, making it unique among countries without declared nuclear arsenals.

Tehran has also curtailed cooperation with international nuclear inspectors as tensions escalated. The head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog has warned that Iran could produce enough material for multiple nuclear weapons if it chose to do so. U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran has not yet decided to build a bomb but has taken steps that would allow it to move quickly in that direction.

In a recent gesture toward diplomacy, Iran announced it had halted uranium enrichment at all sites, signaling a possible openness to renewed negotiations aimed at easing sanctions. However, no substantive talks have followed in the months since the June conflict.

The current crisis is unfolding against a long and troubled history between Iran and the United States. Once close allies under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, relations collapsed after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the subsequent seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, which led to a prolonged hostage crisis and the severing of diplomatic ties. Decades of hostility, punctuated by brief periods of engagement such as the 2015 nuclear deal, have followed.

Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from that agreement in 2018 reignited tensions that have only intensified since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas. Now, as protests spread and economic pressure mounts, Iran’s leadership faces one of its most serious internal challenges in years, with uncertain consequences at home and abroad.