OPEC+ Holds Output Steady as Political Crises Mount and Oil Prices Struggle

BY COMFORT OGBONNA

OPEC+ decided on Sunday to keep its oil production levels unchanged, sidestepping direct discussion of the growing number of political crises affecting several of its key members, including conflicts and instability in the Middle East, as well as developments involving Russia, Iran and Venezuela. The decision came as oil markets remain under pressure following a sharp decline in prices over the past year.

The online meeting involved eight core members of the OPEC+ alliance, a group that collectively produces about half of the world’s crude oil supply. The talks followed a difficult year for energy markets, with oil prices falling more than 18% in 2025, marking their steepest annual decline since 2020. The sell-off was driven largely by concerns over excess supply and uneven global demand, particularly as economic growth slowed in several major consuming regions.

Political tensions among member states have added another layer of uncertainty. Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates deteriorated last month after a UAE-aligned group seized territory from the Saudi-backed government in Yemen, reigniting a long-running conflict and triggering the deepest rift between the two former allies in decades. The dispute has raised questions about cohesion within the producer group at a time when unity is seen as critical to managing volatile markets.

Geopolitical risks escalated further over the weekend after the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Washington would take temporary control of the oil-rich country until a transition to a new administration becomes possible, without providing details on how such a process would unfold. The move has heightened uncertainty around Venezuela’s future oil output and the broader implications for global supply.

Market analysts say oil prices are increasingly reacting to political developments rather than traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals. With conflicts, sanctions and diplomatic tensions dominating headlines, OPEC+ appears focused on maintaining stability and avoiding abrupt policy shifts that could further unsettle markets. The eight participating countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — boosted their collective output targets by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day during 2025, an amount equivalent to nearly 3% of global oil demand, as they sought to reclaim market share.

However, in November the group agreed to pause further output increases for the first three months of 2026, citing relatively weak seasonal demand during the northern hemisphere winter. That stance was reaffirmed during Sunday’s brief meeting, according to delegates, with no formal discussion of the situation in Venezuela or other geopolitical flashpoints. OPEC+ said the eight members are scheduled to meet again on February 1 to reassess market conditions.

Historically, OPEC has managed to navigate deep internal divisions by prioritising oil market management over political disputes, including during periods of major conflict such as the Iran-Iraq war. Even so, the current environment presents multiple overlapping challenges. Russian oil exports have been constrained by U.S. sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine, while Iran continues to face domestic unrest alongside renewed threats of U.S. intervention.

Venezuela, despite holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves — even exceeding those of Saudi Arabia — has seen its production collapse after years of mismanagement, underinvestment and international sanctions. Analysts believe that even with potential future investment from major U.S. oil companies, any meaningful recovery in Venezuelan output is likely to take years rather than months.

As oil prices struggle to regain momentum and political risks continue to multiply, OPEC+ appears intent on holding its current course, betting that stability and caution offer the best chance of navigating an increasingly unpredictable global energy landscape.