By Ginika Igboke
As 2025 comes to a close, political attention is already shifting toward the 2026 midterm elections, with control of Congress hanging in the balance.
Republicans enter the cycle with relatively favorable odds in the Senate, where they currently hold a 53–47 majority. Of the 33 Senate seats up for election in 2026, 20 are held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats. Prediction markets give Republicans about a two-thirds chance of retaining control of the upper chamber, though several competitive races could determine the final outcome.
Democrats, meanwhile, are favored to retake the House of Representatives. Republicans currently hold a narrow 220–213 majority, with two vacancies. Forecasts show Democrats with strong odds of flipping the chamber, and national polling averages give them a lead of nearly four points.
Below are eight of the most closely watched Senate races heading into the Nov. 3, 2026, general election.
Texas
Texas is shaping up to host one of the most contentious primary battles of the cycle. On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a race that pits Paxton’s populist, America First message against Cornyn’s long-standing establishment credentials.
Paxton enters the race carrying significant political baggage, including a 2023 impeachment trial that ended in acquittal. Cornyn has framed the contest as a test of character, pointing to Paxton’s legal troubles and personal controversies.
Adding further complexity is Rep. Wesley Hunt, whose entry sets up a three-way primary that could force a runoff. Senate GOP leadership is backing Cornyn, who holds a slight polling edge. Former President Donald Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate.
Democrats see the race as a long shot, but state Rep. James Talarico currently leads the Democratic field, followed closely by Rep. Jasmine Crockett. The Texas primary is scheduled for March 3, with runoffs on May 26.
Georgia
Republicans have spent years trying to reclaim at least one of Georgia’s Senate seats, both of which flipped to Democrats in 2021. Sen. Jon Ossoff faces no serious primary opposition, while Republicans have a crowded field.
Leading GOP contenders include Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, along with former football coach Derek Dooley. All have emphasized loyalty to Trump in hopes of securing his endorsement, though he has remained neutral. Former Gov. Brian Kemp has endorsed Dooley.
Collins currently leads the Republican primary field, but Ossoff holds an advantage in general election matchups against all three candidates. Georgia’s primary will be held on May 19, with a runoff on June 16.
Maine
Sen. Susan Collins, first elected in 1996, faces what could be the toughest reelection fight of her career in heavily Democratic New England. Democrats view her seat as a prime pickup opportunity.
The leading Democratic contenders are military veteran Graham Platner and Maine Gov. Janet Mills. Platner initially gained national attention and secured progressive support, including an endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders, but his campaign has been hampered by scandals. Mills has the backing of Senate Democratic leadership.
Polling suggests Collins would defeat Mills but could struggle against Platner. Maine’s primary election is set for June 9.
Michigan
With Sen. Gary Peters retiring, Michigan presents a major pickup opportunity for Republicans. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost a Senate race in 2024, is the leading GOP candidate and has been endorsed by Trump.
Democrats face a competitive primary that includes Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and physician Abdul El-Sayed. Establishment Democrats are backing Stevens, who currently holds a slight lead in primary polling.
General election polling suggests Rogers would narrowly defeat any of the Democratic contenders. Michigan’s primary is scheduled for Aug. 4.
Ohio
Once the ultimate swing state, Ohio has trended increasingly Republican. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking a political comeback after losing his seat in 2024.
The current seat holder, Sen. Jon Husted, was appointed to replace JD Vance after Vance became vice president. Husted, endorsed by Trump, leads Brown by a small margin in polling.
This special election will determine who serves the remaining two years of Vance’s term. Ohio’s primary takes place on May 5.
North Carolina
North Carolina remains a perennial battleground. Republicans are defending an open seat following the retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis.
Democrats gained a boost when former Gov. Roy Cooper announced his candidacy. Cooper, a popular statewide figure, currently leads Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who has Trump’s endorsement.
The North Carolina primary will be held on March 3, with runoffs scheduled for May 12.
Nebraska
In deep-red Nebraska, Republicans are expected to retain the seat currently held by Sen. Pete Ricketts, who was appointed after Sen. Ben Sasse’s retirement.
Democrats are not fielding a candidate, but independent Dan Osborn could pose a challenge. In 2024, Osborn came within single digits of winning a Senate race and has pledged not to caucus with either party.
Nebraska’s primary is set for May 12.
New Hampshire
With Sen. Jeanne Shaheen retiring, Republicans see an opportunity in a state that typically leans Democratic at the national level.
The GOP primary features former Sen. John Sununu and former Sen. Scott Brown. Party leadership is backing Sununu, who holds a sizable lead in primary polling.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Chris Pappas is the clear frontrunner. General election polling shows Pappas with a narrow advantage over Sununu and a wider margin against Brown.
New Hampshire’s primary election will be held on Sept. 8, 2026.
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