By Tianzi Yang
China’s latest attempt to pressure Japan has produced an unexpected political effect: the more Beijing escalates, the stronger Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi becomes at home.
What began as an exchange in the Japanese Diet earlier this month has evolved into a full-scale standoff touching diplomacy, economics, tourism, and the regional balance of power. Yet instead of weakening Japan’s new leader, Beijing’s tactics have pushed the Japanese public closer together—and pushed Takaichi’s approval ratings higher.
The crisis traces back to a Nov. 7 Diet session, when Takaichi was pressed on how Japan would respond if China moved militarily against Taiwan. Her answer was unusually blunt:
If China blockaded or attacked Taiwan, it would constitute a “survival-threatening crisis” for Japan—triggering the Self-Defense Forces’ right to intervene.
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While consistent with Japan’s long-standing security doctrine, such explicit language is rarely spoken in parliament. Beijing reacted sharply, turning a routine exchange into a major diplomatic confrontation.
Analysts in Tokyo noted that the remark seemed unscripted. But whatever its origin, it has become the defining controversy of Takaichi’s first six weeks in office.
China responds by slashing flights and tightening travel warnings
Beijing’s retaliation came quickly. It issued a travel warning for Japan and began cutting commercial flights at a sweeping scale.
According to Chinese state media:
Narita Airport officials confirmed that Chinese carriers plan to cut 10–20 percent of flights starting in December, and will shift many routes to smaller aircraft. The move signals Beijing’s deep pessimism about future demand.
The effects ripple far beyond airports. More than 8.2 million Chinese tourists visited Japan this year through October, forming a crucial pillar of the tourism economy. Reduced supply has pushed up airfares and further dampened cross-border travel.
On Nov. 26, China’s embassy in Japan issued yet another advisory urging Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to the country.
Pressure from Beijing only strengthens Takaichi
Beijing’s coercion has had the opposite of its intended effect.
Ichiro Korogi of Kanda University summarized the situation: “The more pressure China applies, the more unified the Japanese public becomes.”
Takaichi’s conservative security stance is resonating widely—especially among younger voters, who increasingly question Japan’s postwar pacifist assumptions.
A Yomiuri Shimbun national poll shows:
For the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, support from younger voters represents a political breakthrough.
Younger Japanese grew up during China’s rise and view Beijing through the lens of contemporary geopolitics rather than postwar reconciliation. Their concerns are tangible: military activity around Japan’s islands, surging Chinese tourism, and rising property prices linked to foreign buyers.
Support from abroad bolsters Takaichi further
Taiwan moved swiftly to show support. Taipei lifted all remaining import restrictions on Japanese food products—including seafood banned since the 2011 Fukushima disaster—and President Lai Ching-te publicly posted a video of himself eating sushi made with Japanese scallops and yellowtail.
The gesture doubled as a strategic message: Taiwan and Japan stand together against Beijing’s pressure.
U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel also delivered unusually direct backing: “The President, I, and the embassy all support the Prime Minister’s position.”
The statement reinforced the impression of alignment within the U.S.–Japan alliance on Taiwan—adding another layer of legitimacy to Takaichi’s stance.
China’s economic leverage is losing its impact
Beijing’s economic coercion—long effective against smaller economies—is showing diminishing returns in Japan. Though canceling more than 900 flights will cost hundreds of millions of dollars, such losses are manageable for a major industrial democracy.
Instead of backing down, Japan is accelerating supply-chain diversification and reducing reliance on China. Public frustration with Beijing is hardening into a long-term political trend—particularly among younger generations whose distrust of Beijing is becoming structural.
As long as China maintains military pressure in the East China Sea and near Taiwan, Japanese voters are likely to gravitate toward leaders with hawkish security views.
The current dispute has effectively locked East Asia into firmer geopolitical blocs. Japan, Taiwan, and the United States are aligning more tightly around shared interests and democratic values, while China faces increasing isolation.
Takaichi’s comments may sound blunt, but they simply articulate strategic assumptions long embedded in the U.S.–Japan framework.
Original article
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