The U.S. Mortgage market just flipped. CNBC reports sudden surge in applications.

CNBC just reported a sudden spike in home buyer demand. In fact, CNBC is now saying that we're seeing the largest increase in mortgage applications in three years as interest rates drop sharply. More specifically, CNBC just reported today that applications to purchase a home rose 7% from the last week and were 23% higher than the same week one year ago. And the implication here, it may be Fed rate cuts and declining mortgage rates could be bringing some home buyers off the sidelines and buying houses. The question is, is this just a blip on the radar or are we actually going to see a sustained increase in home buyer demand? I'm going to answer those questions for you in today's live stream and I'm going to be taking your requests as this live stream goes on. But the first thing I want to do is actually ground you guys in the data. What is CNBC talking about here in this article when they say mortgage demand jumps to the highest level in three years? Well, this is what they're talking about. The mortgage application index, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association. You can see here it went up to 169 in the first week of September, which was up 22% from a year ago and one of the highest levels in the last two years. However, folks, what do you notice if you look at this graph on mortgage demand? You can see that it's still about 30 to 35% below pre-pandemic levels. And actually, the current levels of mortgage demand are even less than they were after the last housing crash in 2010. So the demand levels are still near the lowest level in the last 30 years on mortgage applications, home sales, and pending sales. The demand is still in the basement. The question is, Fed rate cuts, lower mortgage rates, and lower prices, are they finally starting to bring some buyers back into the market? You guys can let me know what you think there because if we're seeing here on the Fed rate cut odds, the Fed seems like they're going to cut interest rates on September 17th by 25 basis points. There's a 90% chance that they cut interest rates 25 basis points on September 17th. There's a 10% chance they do a double rate cut. That is now causing mortgage rates to drop. Mortgage rates have now dropped to 6.29%, 6.3%. It's the lowest mortgage rates we've seen in 11 months. And this I think is tricking a lot of people in the housing market. These lower mortgage rates are starting to trick a lot of people into thinking that there's going to be a boom in prices, thinking that there's going to be a boom in demand, when in actuality, as I showed you a second ago, the demand is still very, very low. And an additional thing the housing market is now going to need to contend with everyone is lower prices. So not only are mortgage rates starting to drop, we're now seeing prices drop in half the US. Very important that you guys as prospective buyers and investors understand this. The prices are already dropping now in half the US. I see some people say, Nick, home prices are still going up in my area. Well, if you live in the Northeastern Midwest, that's true. However, if you live in almost any other part of America, home prices are now officially going down most likely in your city in zip code, which is great news if you're a prospective buyer. The issue is, though, is that if you go on Zillow and you look at houses, and folks, feel free to actually request some Zillow listings for me to look at here in this live stream down below. But if you just go on Zillow south of Nashville, right, where I live, south of Nashville, and you look at how much these houses are listed for, four bed, two bath, get a load of this, everyone. Four bed, two bath, $710,000. Let's just zoom in on this. $710,000 for a four bed, two bath, 1,600 square feet. Now you say to yourself, who can afford that? That's a monthly payment. It's funny, they say it's a $5,000 monthly payment. I think that monthly payment is probably even higher than that. And the crazy thing is this house sold for $350,000 back in 2019, and it sold for $502,000 in 2021, they're going to list it at $710,000 in 2025. Are you kidding me, folks? And this is the ultimate issue, right? A lot of sellers are still overlisting their homes. And that's why the buyer demand is still really, really low, and why a lot of people aren't noticing actually that home prices are going down and going down in a lot of areas. And I ultimately think home prices are going to drop by quite a bit across the US over the next year in certain states. Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, Utah, Nevada, even parts of California are going to see home prices go down anywhere from 3%, 5%, to maybe even 10% over the next 12 months, which is a big drop for 12 months. Additionally, there's some other leading indicators that are starting to look a little scary for the housing market. One is lumber prices. Lumber prices are in freefall right now. I'm not sure if you guys are paying attention to this, but lumber prices are now flashing a big warning sign for the US economy. According to the Wall Street Journal, they're saying lumber prices are falling and falling fast. Oh my goodness. You can see how much the lumber prices have gone down just in the last couple of weeks. They've gone down on the order of about 30%, 40% in the last couple of weeks, everyone. Why is that? Well, it's because home builders have a lot of inventory. The demand to new homes isn't very strong. As a result, the demand to buy lumber isn't really strong. Lumber prices are going down. When lumber prices go down, that's generally a signal that the housing market could go down as well. Additionally, another issue for the US housing market now might be the labor market. The US payroll report was just marked down by 911,000 yesterday. You guys can let me know if you saw this. US payrolls marked down a record 911,000. Basically, the Bureau of Labor Statistics each year does a benchmark revision on their payroll report. They basically look at data that's much more accurate than their short-term data. They found that they overestimated payrolls by 911,000 from March 2024 to March 2025. That's just basically telling you that the labor market is even worse than you thought it was. About a week ago, I did a live stream for you guys telling you about how the demand in the labor market, the demand for jobs wasn't very good. In the last couple of months, we just saw our weakest four months of monthly payrolls since the pandemic. From May 2025 to August 2025, job growth was down 84% from normal. And then on top of that, the BLS just revised down the jobs from last year. The labor market is now starting to look in a perilous position. With the labor market in a perilous position, you have to wonder how many people are going to go out and buy homes and if this report from CNBC is actually going to be able to be sustained about higher mortgage applications. What I actually think, everyone, is that the mortgage applications jumped in the first week of September due to a seasonal adjustment due to Labor Day. There's like all these seasonal adjustments that the Mortgage Bankers Association does on their weekly reports and Labor Day, generally the demand drops, but then there's a seasonal adjustment to make it go higher. We'll have to see in future weeks if that increase in mortgage applications sustains itself. I wouldn't be surprised if there's an incremental increase in homebuyer demand with lower mortgage rates, but not enough to really make a huge dent in the market. And you guys can let me know what you think here in the chat. Do you think homebuyers are going to be rushing to come back into the housing market? Do you think home prices are going to go up or down over the next year? You can let me know. Juan here in the chat is talking about 3301. This is the worst inventory he's ever seen in 3301. This is a big thing, everyone. If you're wondering where home prices are going to go in the future, you can look at the national narratives, you can look at what's going on with mortgage applications, or you can actually just look at the data in your area and see what's going on. So 3301. Let's take a look at 3301. What is Juan pointing to when he says worst inventory he's ever seen in 3301? Well, let's take a look at ReVentureApp 3301, Fort Lauderdale 3301. How many homes are for sale in this zip code? 357. You can see that's up significantly from a couple years ago. Actually, it's still below pre-pandemic though. So if your inventory is below pre-pandemic, you're actually in a better place in terms of inventory than some other parts of America where it's through the roof. In this zip code, Juan, we think prices are going to drop 2.1% over the next year. So really the forecast for your area, it depends on your local market dynamics. It depends on how high inventory is, what's home buyer demand doing, what's days on market. We have another user here in the chat, Megan. She's moving from 15601 to 34684. Well, let's take a look at where you're moving to, Megan, 34684. And I know a lot of you, you might be looking at moving, right? Or you might be renting and you're just looking to buy in your area. You guys can let me know in the comments and the chats below. Are you looking to move across the country? Or are you just looking to go from a rental to a house in your area? Are you looking to buy an investment property? Well, 34684, this is in the Tampa Metro. And this is a zip code where the inventory is through the roof, everyone. Look at that jump in supply. 219 homes on the market compared to a long-term average of 134 homes on the market. When you see that big of an inventory increase, it means a downward market. We have a minus 8.7% forecast in this area and minus 8.7% over the next 12 months. Over the last year, prices here are already down 7.7%. This is an area called Landa Lakes in Tampa. As one of you is now saying in the chat, oh, Megan's saying she's reversing moving out of Florida. But I would actually say a lot of people are leaving Florida right now. I left Florida a couple of weeks ago. I talked to a lot of people from the Northeast and Midwest and California who moved to Florida over the last couple of years. They liked it. They stayed for a couple of years. But ultimately, it wasn't home for them. They're starting to move back where they came from. So I think Florida in particular, as well as states like Texas, Tennessee, Utah, Nevada, these states that had a big boom in migration during the pandemic, they're facing a lot of these people now electing to move back where they came from and just a natural slowdown in the migration levels as a result. And so in an area that's just dealing with a natural slowdown in migration, what is rate cuts going to do for that area? What is an incremental decline in mortgage rates going to do for that area that's dealing with a slowdown in migration? I mean, the migration numbers are actually pretty shocking, everyone. And I'm actually going to show you now some premium data on Revenge Wrap. We're going to look at the migration state by state. So you can see how many people are moving to your area or not moving to your area. We'll start with Florida. In 2024, Florida had 64,000 net people move in, which is positive. But as you can see, the migration dropped 80% from where it was two years ago. So take a look at this migration drop in Florida from 2022 to 2024. So if you're in Florida and you're talking to people and they're still saying to you, all the people are moving in like they were during the pandemic, it's simply not true. The data from the Census Bureau is in front of your eyes here on Revenge Wrap. The migration is way down. It's actually the fifth lowest level of migration in Florida the last 35 years, which is good news if you're a prospective buyer. It's going to keep pushing prices down. Additionally, take a look at Texas, everyone. Texas was a market with a big surge in migration. In 2022, we had over 220,000 net people move to Texas. That dropped to 85,000 net people in 2024. So when you see the migration fall off the table and when you see fewer people moving in and you see the inventory levels rising, that's telling you that prices are going to drop by more in the future and that your market isn't going to be as exposed or reliant to these short-term interest rate movements. I've been talking to some people over the last couple of days and they've been asking me the question like, how much is the Fed going to cut interest rates by? Should the Fed even cut interest rates? And I'll start with the last question. Should the Fed cut interest rates? My answer is yes. I think the Fed should cut interest rates. I think the housing market's in a pretty perilous position right now. Homebuilders have all types of supply on the market. Homebuilders actually have the most supply on the market they've had literally ever in the South. We've actually never seen more builder homes for sale than we have today in the South, even in 2006. And a similar case on the West Coast. So I think there's definite justification for an interest rate cut. The job market's slowing. The job growth was 900,000 worse than expected the last 12 months. There's definite justification for an interest rate cut. Now, how much should they cut rates? I think a quarter point cut makes sense. I mean, ultimately, they haven't cut rates for the last year, right? Let's cut rates 25 basis points and then see what happens. There's no reason to come in with a 50 basis point cut or a 75 basis point cut off the bat. I know that's what a lot of people who buy stocks in crypto and who speculate on real estate, they want the Fed to come in with like a big mega interest rate cut because they think that that's going to somehow benefit them in the long run. But I think that'd be kind of irresponsible for the Fed to do. Stock market is still booming. There's still some inflationary pressures in the economy. So let's cut interest rates 25 basis points and see what happens. I ultimately, and you guys can let me know what you think, you know, do you think these interest rate cuts are actually going to have a real impact on middle class Americans, like real working Americans? Are interest rate cuts going to actually do anything for real working Americans? Well, it might make mortgages slightly cheaper. It might make car loans slightly cheaper, but it's not really changing the prices of these things. And it's the prices of these things that are the problem. The prices are too high. And that's the demand killer is prices being too high. It's not mortgage rates being too high. And it's very important for you all to understand this, that it's the prices, because a lot of people in real estate, they try to do this kind of misdirection. They try to make it all be about mortgage rates. And they try to say mortgage rates are all that matters. But folks, that is not the case. You know, you guys, again, can let me know what you think. But mortgage rates are actually pretty normal compared to long term norms. I'm actually going to show you a graph here in a second. And I'm live, by the way, everyone. So if I'm a little slow, picking up the next graph or next article, just forgive me, I'm going through this in real time. But I just think it's so important you all understand what is driving the slow buyer demand today, what is driving the downturn in the housing market. And it's the fact that prices are too high. You know, on the 150 year home price graph, take a look at it, everyone. Take a look at the 150 year home price graph I'm about to show you. We have never seen anything like this before in U.S. history. Now, this data goes back to 1890. And I'm going to move my picture here so you guys can see it. This data goes back to 1890, comes from Robert Shiller, who's the godfather of housing economics. If you guys have never heard of Robert Shiller, you should look him up. He predicted the last housing bubble in 2003, 2004. He's the foundation, actually, for a lot of what I do on RevengeRap, a lot of data points I came up with, like home value to income ratio. I kind of started thinking about all of this after reading about Robert Shiller's work. But this is a graph that he put the data together for, and I visualized here on this chart, showing home prices in America the last 135 years. What do you see is that from 1890 all the way to 1999 or 1998, prices adjusted for inflation didn't go up. Prices just kind of stayed stable. They stayed stable for 100 years, they stayed stable relative to inflation, meaning prices just went up at the rate of inflation and income growth. Then we have the 2006 bubble. First time anything like this happened, home prices detached from fundamentals, had a lot to do with the Fed artificially suppressing interest rates in the early 2000s. Then there was a big crash. Then the Fed artificially suppressed interest rates again. They artificially suppressed interest rates again. We're in another big bubble. We're actually even in a bigger bubble than 2006 in terms of real prices than we were, actually a bigger real bubble now than in 2006. So again, if you ask yourself the question, why is this housing market the way it is? Why does it feel so expensive? If you're a realtor or mortgage broker asking why is the demand so low, it is due to prices being too high. But I just really want to show you the comparison to mortgage rates, because this just really speaks a lot, the comparison to mortgage rates. If I can find it, can I find it here? Because I have like 100 graphs that I'm going through. Okay, here we go, everyone. Home prices versus mortgage rates going back 135 years. What do you see? Home prices through the roof. Mortgage rates? Normal. Mortgage rates are roughly at their long-term norm. Home prices through the roof. This is explaining all the difficulties you're having in the housing market right now is this graph. It's explaining why we're not going to see real improvement in buyer demand until these prices come back down further to their long-term average. Now, I got some more requests here, everyone. And get your requests ready if you're watching me live, because I'm going through some of these right now. And I think it's important for you guys to see in real time how different housing markets are behaving, right? Some of you might be in Florida. Others might be in New York. Others might be in California. But it's important to just get the baseline perspective of how to analyze your housing market. Should you buy now? Should you wait? Should you try to buy at 10% below market value today? These are questions you should all consider. What's the direction of my market? I'm going to just show you how to do that analysis right now through taking some of these requests. Megan has another request. She says, oh, she's leaving Pinellas County. Gotcha. I thought she were moving to Florida. No, she's leaving Florida. She's going to 15601 Greensburg, Pennsylvania. Greensburg, Pennsylvania. I can't say I've heard of Greensburg, Pennsylvania, but we're going to go to Reventrap. We're going to see if we have the data for Greensburg, Pennsylvania. I'm going to guess this is probably in the middle of the state, probably the middle of Pennsylvania. Where are we here? Oh, we're near Pittsburgh. We're southeast of Pittsburgh. So on the west side, typical home value of 251,000. Now, where is the market of Greensburg going? Southeast of Pittsburgh, everyone. We're southeast of Pittsburgh. Prices up 1.7% in the last year. You can see, actually, there's a lot of zip codes around here that are up 5%, 6%. The ReVenture forecast for your zip code, oh, wow, plus 6%. Megan, we think values are going to go up plus 6% in your zip code that you're moving to over the next year. What that says is that it would be a better idea for you to buy now than to wait is what this says, because there's still a massive shortage of inventory, homes. I just want to show you guys, how do we come up with this forecast? Inventory in the zip code. There's no inventory. Went from 240 homes to 77 homes. Days on market. What's the days on market? 33 days on market. We were at 70 days on market before the pandemic. So when you see these data points, Megan, and for anyone else out there looking who is maybe in the northeastern Midwest, when you see this decline in DOM, the decline in inventory, it's telling you prices are going to continue going up. So it's better for you to buy now. All right. What other requests here do we have? Get your requests ready, everyone, because I want to get you guys engaged on here. Okay. Channel member VTG wants me to check out Charlotte, North Carolina, and Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Okay. Now, Charlotte has been in the news lately. Is it a good place to buy real estate right now? Let's move out on the ReVenture app map and look at all the different cities in the U.S. What's going on in Charlotte? This was a big boomtown during the pandemic. What does ReVenture app think about prices in Charlotte over the next year? We think they're going to go down 4.8% over the next year. You can see our forecast here in Charlotte at minus 4.8%. By the way, this data is accessible to all of you guys out there. At the end of this live stream, go to www.reventure.app, sign up for a premium plan so you can actually access this data and take the power of real-time data in the housing market into your own hands so you can save money on buying a house. Now, Charlotte was holding on for a while, but you can see in the last year, it's really shifted into a buyer's market due to a big spike in inventory. So good, you know, VTG, if you're looking to buy in Charlotte now, it's going to get better for you over the next year. You might be able to negotiate discounts today. Now, in Winston-Salem, you're not going to have as much luck. Winston-Salem, our forecast is stable over the next year. We basically think the typical value of $772,000 is going to stay flat in Winston-Salem, and this is again due to inventory and DOM. You can see in Winston-Salem, which is in northern North Carolina, inventory, yes, it has gone up, but it's below where it was in 2017-2018, so we still think it's going to be a stable forecast. What's interesting about Winston-Salem though, everyone, and this goes to the points I was making kind of in the beginning of this live stream, prices are dropping though for certain listings, and I was actually looking at a house in Winston-Salem the other day. I'm going to see if I can find it in real time here. This is risky. Can I find this house in real time? It was actually pretty affordable. Here, I think this is it. This is a new build in Winston-Salem for $245,000. I mean, is this a good deal, everyone? Three bed, two bath, built in 2025. Let's just zoom in on this a little bit so you can see the data. Built in 2025, three bed, two bath, 1,300 square feet, $245,000. $1,400 a month monthly payment. Is that right, or is Zillow doing some shenanigans here with that monthly payment? Okay, interest rate's more like 6.3. Down payment's going to be more like 15%. Okay, $1,600 a month monthly payment for a brand new house. That's actually not bad. I mean, you would pay more to rent this house for sure. There was another new build I was looking at here in Winston-Salem, which again is in Northern North Carolina. This is a market in North Carolina that doesn't get talked about as much. Everyone talks about Charlotte and Raleigh, right? But Winston-Salem, it's like an old manufacturing town. They have furniture trade shows near there. Let's see, what are the demographics of Winston-Salem? Population growth, marginally positive the last five years. Median income, only 67,000, so it's a lower income area. Median age, 40, right? This is kind of maybe a slightly below average demographics area in terms of what you would want to see for real estate, but the price points work. $235,000, three bed, two bath, new build, $1,350 a month to buy. The way I like to look at this, everyone, if you had to rent it, if you had to rent a similar house, what would you be paying? Well, here they have a apartment for $800 a month. That is pretty cheap. But the houses in this area, I think, rent for more than that. One data point I would encourage a lot of you guys to look at, because I know a lot of you are first-time buyers, right? Tell me if you're a first-time buyer. It's the comparison between the cost to buy and the cost to rent. How much financially does it cost you per month to buy a house? Mortgage taxes, insurance, include that maintenance cost too. Then how much would it cost you to rent a same or similar house? That analysis is really going to ground you in this idea of if it's good for you to buy right now, and then maybe how much of a discount you would need to get to be able to make that house work. We actually have a data point on ReVenture app called rent versus buy differential. You can actually see in Winston-Salem, it's even. The cost to buy to rent is even. But in Charlotte, it's 36% more expensive to buy. What's wild is that in Winston-Salem, the apartment rent is the same as Charlotte. The apartment rent is basically the same, but the cost to buy in Charlotte is about 35% more. I guess what I'm getting at in this video is Winston-Salem might be a decent place to buy a house. If you have to buy right now, this could be a decent place. If you zoom out, you can see the most affordable areas to buy relative to rent are in the southeast, like Birmingham, Alabama, only 8% more expensive to buy. Columbia, South Carolina, actually cheaper to buy than to rent. Even some places in Florida and central Florida are cheaper to buy than rent. However, if you go to the West Coast, you see some crazy stuff on the West Coast. I had someone request San Diego earlier in this live stream. In San Diego, look at this, everyone. It's 90% more expensive to buy a house than to rent. You have to spend $6,000 a month to buy versus $3,200 a month to rent. We've never seen that buy versus rent differential level in history. You can look at this buy versus rent differential on ReVenture app under home prices and affordability on a premium plan. You could see it for almost every metro and zip code in the U.S. going back 25 years. We can even zoom in here on San Diego. Again, if you guys are wondering, should I buy? Should I rent? What should I do? It's now a good time. Take a look at this buy versus rent differential by zip code. We have some zip codes here in San Diego. It's 138% more expensive to buy than rent. If it's 138% more expensive to buy than rent, why would you buy? Honest question. In La Jolla, it's 296% more expensive to buy than rent. That's wild. People wonder why the buyer demand is so low. Why are the mortgage applications, despite their 23% year-over-year increase and being the highest level in three years, why are the mortgage applications still 35% below pre-pandemic levels? Why are the pending sales still 30% below the pre-pandemic levels? Why are builders struggling to even do decent sales with all their price cuts? It's because financially, home buyers feel like it's a raw deal. They do the math and they're like, this doesn't make sense. In fact, there was a recent article talking about now how millionaires are becoming renters. We're seeing more and more millionaires decide to rent. These are people who have plenty of money. According to the New York Times, these wealthy people are renting. The number of households earning $1 million or more in the United States who are renting more than tripled between 2019 and 2023. I think this is really interesting, this data point. Why are millionaires, according to a report from Rent Cafe, choosing to rent? 14,000 millionaire households in 2023 were renters. I guess they're choosing flexibility and liquidity over ownership. They don't want to be bothered with the inconveniences of homeownership, which includes paying real estate taxes and insurance, especially markets like Florida and California, where we're seeing a lot of natural catastrophes. I think this speaks to another thing about the slowdown in home buyer demand. It's not only that people can't afford it. Even the people who can afford it aren't buying. That suggests that there's something deeper. Property taxes are too high. Insurance is too high. Owning seems somewhat like a liability. I think the biggest thing is people look at the price and they think, if I buy this property now, it's going to maybe more likely go down in value than go up. That's probably the biggest thing. If you're sitting on $2 million in the bank, you still want to make a good investment with your money. If you have this impression that you're going to buy a house for $1 million and it's going to be worth $800,000 in two years, you're going to wait. I think that's what people are doing. Let's get into some final requests, everyone, because I want to see what areas you guys are looking at buying. What areas are you guys looking at buying? We see Maker Jake here looking to buy, but he has time. He's waiting smart. Wondering at DC Metro, being effective is all the layoffs. Particularly curious 22611, 22602. 22611, 22602. Good point. There's also older people who are downsizing, who are also electing not to buy, who are millionaires. I also think there's younger people too who just don't want to deal with the hassle of owning, but let's see. DC Metro, 22611. As you guys know, DC has been beset by layoffs. A lot of people being laid off in DC. How is the housing market doing? This is a zip code from Maker Jake in Berryville, Virginia, which is basically almost in ... This is as far out as you can go, pretty much. This is basically almost in Pennsylvania. Now, let's look at that buy versus rent differential first. 103%, two times more expensive to buy than rent. Suggests maybe you should wait. Home value growth in the last year, up 1.8%. Market's still going up over the last year. However, what's our price forecast? Oh, so this is the thing that says not to wait. We think prices in this area are going to go up 2.9% over the next year. Why are we predicting prices in this zip code in Northern Virginia to go up? Well, if we take a look here at the components on the ReVenture app forecast. Inventory, suggesting prices are going to go up. Days on market suggesting prices are going to go up. You look at the inventory. If you guys want to just do this yourself and break out the data, inventory down from 44 homes to 17 homes. We still have an inventory shortage. Days on market, down from 76 days to 33 days. Market's moving fast. When you see that, it's telling you price is more likely to go up. It's telling you the advantage in waiting isn't as high. If you do really want to buy in the next year, it might be better to buy in a market like this today, especially in the winter. You could get a better deal in the winter in this market. What about some other requests, everyone? This is the live stream chat. I'm going to start trying to do these live streams on a more scheduled basis, like 3 p.m. on various days during the week. You guys can let me know if you like that time. I want to be able to answer more of your questions and get into more of the data for you all. Tim actually says he just bought in Winston Salem, bought new. Congratulations, Tim. I think it's probably one of the better areas you could buy right now. Chad says you're stupid if you thought you could make money with Airbnb. You fail, drop the price, and sell a dummy. Yeah, there are a lot of people who try to do Airbnbs, and a lot of them are taking it on the chin right now. Big reason why inventory is way up in a lot of markets. Kirk is requesting Woodland Hills in LA. I've actually been to that zip code. 91367. I think I filmed there maybe like two years ago. 91367. Woodland Hills, California. I believe this is northern LA. Yeah, northwest LA. I filmed the video in the zip code like two years ago. I don't know if you remember that, Kirk. 93167. Is that the right one? 93167. Okay. Now, home values. Flat over the last year. Oh, boy. Typical value of 1.1 million, folks. Just to ground you all, this is downtown LA here. We're to the northwest, probably like 15, 20 miles. Prices are flat over the last year. Where are we projecting they're going to go in the future? Minus 3.2% in the future. We actually have some zip codes here, which we think are going to go down by much more. We're projecting a moderate decline in prices in this zip over the next year. You can see our buyer's market score just hit a 38, which is the lowest score. Best buyer's market it's been in this zip code in nine years, which is good news for you, Kirk. You're going to have the best buying experience you've had in nine years in terms of inventory, in terms of negotiating leverage. However, prices are still pretty high. In terms of overvaluation, we think prices are 30% overvalued in this zip code. This is another data point you guys should pay attention to is the overvaluation rate. One-year forecast tells you what's going on in the next 12 months. Overvaluation rate tells you how fundamentally over or undervalued prices are relative to local incomes. The issue here in this part of northern Los Angeles County is that the prices went up way more than the income, so prices are 30% overvalued. Yeah, you're exactly right, Kirk. Overvaluation is the problem. How about Santa Rosa, California? 95401. Folks, I only have time for a couple more. If you guys want to do this yourself, you can. You can go to www.reventure.app right after I finish this live stream, and you can actually access all this data for yourself under the premium plan. I'm going to tell you how to do that. 95, what was it? 95, the chat's going so fast, I have trouble keeping up. 95401. So, Santa Rosa, everyone, this is northern Bay Area, north of San Francisco's here, Santa Rosa's here. Now, this is very interesting. We think prices in this zip code are undervalued by 7%. So, we just talked about a zip code in Woodland Hills, California that was overvalued 30%. We're here in northern Bay. We think prices are undervalued 7%. Let's dig into this. Why are prices undervalued here in Sonoma County? Well, it has to do with the fact that incomes have gone up faster than home prices. So, if we look at the historical home value to income ratio here, you can see the long-term average home price to income is 7.3. Today, it's 6.7 in this zip code. So, we're actually below the long-term average ratio of home prices to income. Now, we do have a downward forecast, though, over the next 12 months. In spite of that, we think prices are going to drop 6.5% over the next year. That has to do with the current dynamics with inventory. Days on market. Wow. You can see we just dropped off the table here in terms of our home price forecast. So, I want to paint this picture. This is an undervalued market by 7% that we think is going to drop another 7% over the next year. So, we think this market will be very undervalued 12 months from now. You could probably get a good deal if you try to buy a house today. Inventory is up. Days on market also is way up. Just understand that we don't see a huge crash coming in this market overall because the prices are technically undervalued relative home values to income. Okay. Oh, Rod Guilford actually has a quick, really interesting comment here. Oh, so does JK. I got to address both of these. So, Rod Guilford says Vegas is cooked. I'm going to talk about Vegas here in a second. I got to wrap this up in a second, everyone. So, stick with me in the last couple of minutes. But JK often has a comment that I hear a lot of people say. I'm going to zoom in on this comment because it's one that you guys got to pay attention to. People often say real estate prices will never go down because of inflation and the devalued dollar. So, this is maybe the main bullish argument on the housing market now is if there's inflation and the devalued dollar. So, that means prices won't go down. How I respond to that, everyone, is what matters way more than any concept of dollar devaluation and inflation is income and wages. The only way dollar devaluation and inflation positively impact home prices in terms of making prices go up is if it filters through to incomes going up. Incomes have to go up to cause inflationary home prices in the long run. That's the only way inflation causes home prices to go up. This is what happened in the 1970s. I'm going to pull this graph up real quick so you guys can understand this. In the 1970s, we had a decade of inflation in America. And this decade of inflation in America in the 1970s caused home prices to go up by quite a bit. And you can see that actually here on this graph. Wow, I found that really quickly. I'm very proud of myself. Okay. You can see the blue line's home price growth. I'm actually going to move this up. The blue line's worker wage growth going all the way back to 1965. And what do you see? They're pretty correlated, but home values will swing kind of way up and down below worker wages. But ultimately, it's worker wages that drives home values. And the reason why the home values did so well in the 70s is worker wages were growing 8.5% a year, 9% a year. Worker wages were growing 10% a year in 1981. What are worker wages growing at today? Around 3.3% a year. So we're nowhere close in terms of worker wages to seeing an inflationary spiral in the housing market. And that's the only type of inflation that actually matters for home prices. If wages a year from now are going up 10% a year, I would say, yes, you're right. Inflation could cause prices to go up in the future, but that is not even close to happening. If anything, we're seeing wage growth decelerate, and that's telling you that this supposed inflation of asset stocks and crypto could be a bunch of malarkey, could just be a bubble, right? That isn't actually supported by fundamentals. Worker wages and incomes is what matters. Those are the data points underpinning ReVenture's overvaluation metric. So anytime anyone tries to tell you, oh, inflation is going to cause home prices to go up forever, ask them, what are the worker wages? That's the only inflation that matters historically. Now, Rod is talking about Las Vegas. I want to talk about Vegas because Vegas is like a big, you know, often like leading indicator housing market. Vegas is just like, you know, what happens in Vegas actually doesn't stay in Vegas. What happens in Vegas tends to spread to other housing markets around America. And what we're seeing in Vegas is that values are flat year over year. They're flat year over year. But our 12-month forecast in Vegas is now minus 3%. So we're forecasting declining prices in Vegas. And the big reason, well, there's two reasons. One is inventory. We're up to 10,000 homes on the market, second highest level for August. And we just updated the August data for inventory, everyone. So check it out. Second highest level for August we've seen in the last decade. But check out the home sales in Vegas, everyone. This is a scary graph. And again, anyone who's like, oh, prices are going to go up because of the devaluation of the dollar. What are home sales doing in Vegas? Well, in July 2021, there was 4,100 home sales. In July 2025, there was 2,400 home sales. Home sales in Vegas are literally down almost 40% from peak. And they're down about 30% from the long-term average. So if home sales are down 30% from the long-term average, how could you make an argument that inflation and a devalued dollar are going to push prices up into the future, especially when the local population in Vegas is now dealing with a local economic downturn, the tips are down, the tourist visits are down. All that data, everyone, all the data that actually matters for your housing market is available to you at www.reventure.app. If you want to cut through these narratives of inflation, rate cuts, XYZ, gold, and Bitcoin, how does this all impact the housing market? What matters for the housing market are the inventory trends, the days on market trends, price cut trends, and home sale trends in your zip code. And then what also matters is the long-term home value to income ratio, and are prices today over or undervalued compared to the long run? You can answer pretty much any question you have about your housing market, like should you buy, should you wait, how much should you bid, should you negotiate cheaper prices today, should you look for a new city? You can answer all of that by just looking at the data for your market. We make all that data available to you all at www.reventure.app. So right now, everyone, do me a favor, head to www.reventure.app. And do yourself a favor, actually, and type in your city. Say you live in Las Vegas. Type in Las Vegas and immediately start looking at the zip code level data in Vegas. How are home sales trending? Zip code by zip code. Oh my gosh, there's some zip codes in Vegas. Home sales are down 32%. What's our home price forecast look like in Vegas by zip code? Wow, by the airport, we think prices are going to drop 8%. There's some big downward forecast. There's also some areas we think prices are still going to go up. You need to understand the forecast and the overvaluation rate for your city and zip code so you can make a more informed decision as a buyer. You can access all of that data for the low cost of $49 a month, which is less than 0.02% of the cost of buying a house. If you're in Vegas, it's closer to 0.01% of the cost of buying a house. And you can use that data and potentially save $20, $30, $40, $50,000 on buying a house. Use that data, download the market reports, and send it to the seller and listing agent and say, hey, this market's declining. I'm going to need a discount on my home purchase. Use the overvaluation data to decide whether it's better to buy now or wait. Additionally, if you know you're going to be looking for an extended period and you want to replicate what I've been doing in this video, sign up for that annual pass. It knocks the price down by 32%, goes down to $33 a month, and you're going to be able to access that data for a full year, see how the forecast develops, see how your market develops, and take the guesswork out of where our home price is heading in the future. Very valuable data for you guys. Glad to make it available for you at www.reventure.app. Go there right now. Sign up for a premium plan. Sign up for that annual pass so you can access the data in the future. And then, again, ultimately, folks, I think that mortgage rate, that mortgage application spike the CNBC reported, I think it's a blip. Applications are still 30% below their pre-pandemic norms. So until next time, everybody,