Disaster! NASA's Worst Decision to Launch Starliner Again…Elon Musk's Reaction!?

Boeing Starlininer project is one of the most wasteful investments NASA has ever undertaken. After more than 10 years of development and a $4.6 billion investment, it remains stuck in the testing phase. SpaceX's Dragon even had to step in to fix the mess it left behind, bringing back two of their astronauts. Badly, NASA is still burning through its budget on this vehicle with yet another crew mission scheduled for midyear. Will this be NASA's worst decision ever? Let's dive in and find out on today's episode of Alpha Tech. Despite the failed crude test flight of the CST-1 100 Star Liner on June 5th, 2024 and Boeing's $2 billion loss in developing this spacecraft, NASA is still moving forward. The agency is now evaluating options for another test flight before allowing Starlininer to begin regular missions to the ISS. More specifically, during a press conference after SpaceX's Crew Dragon wrapped up the Crew 9 mission on March 18th, Steve Stick, NASA's commercial crew program manager, confirmed that the agency is planning another Starlininer test flight, possibly this year. Whether it will carry crew or not is still up in the air, but it has to happen before Starlininer can start regular crew rotation missions to the ISS. He said, "What we'd like to do is that one flight and then get into a crew rotation flight," Steve added. So the next flight up would really test all the changes we're making to the vehicle and then the next flight beyond that we really need to get Boeing into a crew rotation. So that's the strategy and this is where the debate begins. One side argues that if Starlininer continues to be developed and tested it could eventually succeed giving NASA another crew transport option and reducing reliance on Russia's Soyos or SpaceX's Dragon. On the flip side, critics argue that after years of delays, technical problems, and billions in extra costs, pushing Starliner forward at this point is just throwing good money after bad, especially when SpaceX's Crew Dragon is already out there doing the job reliably and for way less. Actually, the debate over this has been going on for a while. Last year, Elon Musk openly shared his strong opinion on Starlininer's issues, tweeting, "There is no logical purpose to Starliner given that NASA plans to de-orbit space station in 5 years." If you don't know the full story, Musk's comment might seem like an unreasonable criticism. But now, let's rewind to the early days of Starlininer and Dragon. By looking back, we'll understand why Musk said what he did, and more importantly, why NASA is still determined to push Boeing's spacecraft forward. In 2011, after retiring the space shuttle program, NASA launched the commercial crew program, aiming to fund private companies to develop spacecraft for transporting astronauts to the ISS. Then, Boeing and SpaceX jumped into the game. Back in 2014, NASA handed out big contracts. Boeing got $4.6 6 billion to build Starlininer while SpaceX got only $2.6 billion for Crew Dragon. Why the difference? As we know, even though SpaceX got $2 billion less than Boeing, they absolutely delivered. It's been 15 years since its first launch, and their spacecraft has flown to the ISS over 40 times, carrying both crew and cargo on the Falcon rocket. Pretty impressive, right? In contrast, with all that massive funding, Boeing has only managed three test flights so far. After all those years and all that money, they've fallen far behind SpaceX. More than a decade of effort, yet Starliner still isn't certified for regular crew missions. Yeah, that's probably why Musk isn't happy about Starlininer. I mean, the ISS is set to shut down by 2030. So, if they keep pouring money into it, the next 5 years could just be a waste of cash. As of July 2024, NASA's already handed Boeing $2.7 billion out of the $4.6 billion contract. And with each trip carrying four people to the ISS costing around $300 million, the remaining $1.9 billion could easily cover six trips up there. A much smarter way to spend the money than pouring more into endless Starlininer test flights. But remember the $2 billion loss I mentioned earlier. A big chunk of that comes from years of technical issues and failed test flights, which have only added to the delays and cost overruns. First, on December 20th, 2019, Starlininer's first uncrrewed test flight failed due to a software glitch that burned too much fuel, preventing it from reaching the ISS. Though it landed safely, the mission was still considered a failure. And that failure came at a steep cost. Boeing reported a $410 million loss in quarter 4, 2019 to fix the issues and fund a second test flight. Next, OFT2 successfully launched in May 2022 with Starlininer finally docking at the ISS. However, after the mission, Boeing discovered minor issues with the thrusters and software, requiring further repairs and inspections. While it was a step forward, the cost of completing OFT2 and addressing these issues contributed to a $195 million loss in quarter 3, 2022, bringing the total losses at that point to $883 million. Then in 2023, Boeing and NASA indefinitely delayed the first crude test flight after discovering two major safety issues. Parachute soft links that didn't meet NASA's standards and hundreds of meters of flammable tape inside the spacecraft. Fixing these problems added another $257 million to Boeing's losses. And then came the big moment, June 2024. After years of delays, Starlininer finally launched its first crude flight, CFT, with NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunni Williams on board. But the excitement didn't last long. As the spacecraft approached the ISS, problems started piling up. Five of its 28 thrusters failed, making maneuvering tricky. And on top of that, engineers detected five helium leaks in the service module, affecting the pressurization system. Because of these issues, NASA decided it wasn't safe to bring the astronauts back on Starlininer. Instead, they hitched a ride home on SpaceX's Crew Dragon while Starliner made its lonely, uncrrewed return to Earth on September 6th, 2024, following issues with the CST 100 Star Liner in 2024 September 2024. Musk accused the FAA of bias, claiming that the agency was far stricter with SpaceX than with Boeing, despite Starlininer facing serious technical problems. He tweeted, "Amazingly, no Starliner fines for Boeing. The FAA space division is harassing SpaceX about nonsense that doesn't affect safety while giving a free pass to Boeing, even after NASA concluded that their spacecraft was not safe enough to bring back the astronauts. There need to be resations from the FAA leadership." This was one of Musk's harshest criticisms of the FAA, arguing that while Boeing faced no penalties, SpaceX was being unfairly scrutinized over minor issues. Financially, things weren't looking any better for Boeing. In quarter 2, 2024, they took a $125 million hit due to CFT delays. By quarter 3, that number had ballooned to $1.85 billion in total losses. And with another $148 million expected in quarter 4, Boeing's financial bleed was set to surpass $2 billion by early 2025. A brutal reality check. While SpaceX continued to widen the gap. This massive loss isn't extra money from NASA or part of the contract, it's cost overruns that Boeing had to cover themselves due to the fixed price contract. So with $1.9 billion still left in the contract, NASA might just keep pushing forward with Starlininer. NASA and Boeing have also laid out clear plans for the future. According to Steve Stick, the next Starlininer test flight will focus on verifying that the spacecraft's propulsion system functions properly after recent adjustments. The thing that we need to solidify and go test is the prop system in the service module. He said we need to make sure we can eliminate the helium leaks, eliminate the service module thruster issues that we had on docking. While last year's crude test flight helped validate how astronauts control and operate Starlininer, stick emphasized that a major technical issue with the propulsion system remains unresolved. In January, a NASA safety advisory panel acknowledged that although Boeing and NASA have made significant progress in their post-flight technical investigations, the propulsion system issues are still an urgent concern. To address this, Boeing plans to conduct ground tests on the thruster components this summer to verify their proposed fixes. However, stick suggested that ground testing alone might not be enough. To fully ensure the thrusters perform as expected in space, another uncrrewed test flight could be necessary. So, after more than a decade of failures, can Boeing finally turn things around with this next test flight? Honestly, I think they're serious about making it work, especially with Kelly Ortberg in charge. The guy's got over 35 years of experience in aerospace. So, if anyone can get Starlininer back on track, it's him. However, this was an additional test flight required for NASA certification, meaning that under the fixed price contract, Boeing had to cover the entire cost, roughly $400 million on its own. This wasn't the first time either. Back in 2022, after the failure of OFT1 in 2019, Boeing had to fund OFT2 out of pocket, recording a $410 million loss without receiving a single extra dollar from NASA. On top of that, Boeing is already $2 billion over budget trying to fix Star Liner issues, and another test flight won't come cheap. This puts them under serious financial pressure, especially with the spacecraft's already tarnished reputation. NASA, meanwhile, wants Starlininer to succeed to maintain redundancy alongside Crew Dragon, but they have no plans to throw in extra funding beyond the current contract. Adding to the pressure is the ticking clock. NASA plans to retire the ISS around 2030, meaning Boeing and NASA have to fast track Starlininer's certification within this shrinking window. If Boeing doesn't act quickly, NASA might not have enough space to fulfill its contract with Starlininer. NASA is gearing up for Artemis 2, the first crude mission of the Aremis program. This mission aims to send four astronauts to the moon's south pole, laying the foundation for a sustainable human presence on the moon. While Artemis the Sin won't land on the moon, it will bring humans to its vicinity for the first time since 1972. The core stage for Artemis 2 was transported from Louisiana to NASA last year. And in November, the team began stacking the solid rocket boosters for the space launch system. Recently, significant progress has been made, including the installation of solar panels on the Orion spacecraft and the completion of its service module at Kennedy Space Center. The aerodynamic panels are also ready to be jettisoned during launch. Next month, Orion will move to another facility at Kennedy for fueling, then to another building for its launch abort system before heading to the vehicle assembly building to be stacked on top of the SLS. If we look back at the uncrrewed Artemis way mission in 2022, it took about 8 months to wrap up all these steps before Orion was delivered to the VAB. So with all the delays over the years, it's understandable if we're a bit skeptical about NASA hitting their target launch date for Artemis 2 in April 2026. Speaking of Artemis, NASA used to tout on their site that Artemis 3 would bring the first woman and first person of color to the moon, but they've scrapped that now. It happened last two weekends when NASA axed their DEIA programs and erased related wording per Trump's orders. His team slams DEIA as a waste of cash and shameful discrimination. Though it's not clear how ditching those lines might shake up the crew picks for the moon missions. A NASA spokesperson said that don't worry, the change in language doesn't mean we're switching up the crew. That's it for today's episode. Thank you so much for tuning in. See you soon.