UFC 202 Fight Study: Nate Diaz vs Conor McGregor 2
POST-FIGHT: How many people knew if Conor won the other side would start saying rigged? Picked Nate but I scored it for Conor. Well, management companies whispering in each other's ears. I thought McGregor would be able to make the distance but he just barely did. Nate clearly upset with the leg kicks which completely set up the left. It's always rigged when it doesn't go your way. Got most my picks wrong but I'm 100% fine with that. The analysis was OK, I felt main and co-main was pretty on point. It's all good.
Pick: Nate Diaz by Fourth Round Knockout/TKO
*I've updated my pick to Third Round KO/TKO for Nate Diaz.
Main Card Picks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF2AwD-EvaQ
Johnson vs Teixeira Analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGXR8UQS_U4
Summary: As we draw closer to the fight, I keep re-watching their first fight as well as each of their past fights - I begin to ponder the real outcome of this bout. Nate has a great ability to pick up the pace over time and change rhythms. He's a big guy with a huge frame who doesn't fight like other guys. Conor can't wrestle Nate, but Conor can box Nate. He has to poke and disengage to score a way to decision or deal enough damage to put Nate away. Although this is a possibility, I think it's a rather low one. Knowing Conor, he's going to walk him down and try to knock him out. If Conor McGregor wins, I think it's definitely by knockout in the second round.
Nate at welterweight and in shape isn't helping Conor at all. If Conor does knockout Nate, that really is a great and respectable feat. I do really think Conor has the ability to go 5 rounds but I don't think he can do it against Nate unless he seriously can stick and move while hindering Nate's movement. The strength differential was proved in the clinch the first fight and all though Conor hit Nate with strong shots in the first and second rounds, Nate was able to eat them. His use of height and length are deceptive. I do think this goes a bit longer than the second but that's just because I feel Conor will try to make the adjustments he needs to. When Nate adjusts to that rhythm, Nate will pick up the pace and put Conor away. I feel more confident it will end in KO/TKO this time around. Nate being in shape at welterweight may very well be enough to put Conor away in the first but there's something that makes me think it goes longer. I'll still stick to the 4th round KO/TKO for Nate Diaz. Probably the toughest pick of the year for myself. Be prepared for the upset.
Additional Diaz vs McGregor 2 Analysis: http://www.rapidmma.com/2016/08/nate-diaz-vs-conor-mcgregor-predictions.html
Anthony 'Rumble' Johnson vs Glover Teixeira Prediction Write Up:
http://www.rapidmma.com/2016/08/Anthony-Johnson-vs-Glover-Teixeira-Predictions.html
Current Odds:
Conor McGregor: -125
Nate Diaz: +105
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