The Seduction of COVID-19 Models | CLIP | American Thought Leaders
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"We have a saying in economics, all models are wrong, and some are useful, right? All models are wrong is the most important part of that phrase."
Gigi Foster explains the seduction of simplified models to the human mind, saying that even scientists fell for the allure of a simplified COVID-19 predictions. She explains why these models are never 100% accurate, because they are built based on a multitude of complex and fluid variables, and also because of the inherent biases of those creating the models. Foster adds that those predicting COVID-19 deaths have to overstate the possibility because of the political repercussions they would suffer for under-predicting the totals.
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