China is building a new trade route through Azerbaijan, bypassing Russia
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Beijing intends to significantly increase cargo transportation volumes to Europe via the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route or Middle Corridor in the coming years. This route passes through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, completely bypassing Russia. The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reported this . The route is considered more complex than shipping through Russia. It involves railways, seaports, ferry crossings, and customs procedures across several countries. However, Beijing and Astana continue to actively develop this project. The main reason for this choice is Russia's unreliability as a transit partner. Sanctions against Moscow also play a role. Kazakhstan Railways plans to invest approximately $10 billion by 2030 to develop the Middle Corridor. The funds will be used to upgrade railways, ports, and cargo terminals. Kazakhstan expects to build 900 km of new railway lines by 2026. Construction of a third railway crossing on the border with China is also planned. Once the work is completed, the route's throughput capacity will increase from the current 55 million to 100 million tons of cargo per year. Traffic along the Middle Corridor is already continuing to grow. While 2.76 million tons of cargo passed through it in 2023, this figure increased to 4.48 million tons in 2024. In 2025, the volume reached 4.12 million tons. Analysts estimate that if the project operates at full capacity, Russia could ultimately lose its role as the main transit hub between Asia and Europe.
Recently, China rejected Putin's key proposal, and the visit ended in failure. Putin's visit to China again failed to produce a breakthrough on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline . Reuters reports that the leaders of Russia and China publicly praised their strategic relationship, but the talks showed no real progress on the project, which Moscow has been trying to agree on for over a decade. This is a painful outcome for the Kremlin: the gas pipeline was intended to partially replace the lost European market. Due to the loss of the European market, Russia loses up to 50 billion euros annually. Before the trip, Moscow made it clear it wanted new energy agreements with China, including pipeline supplies and maritime trade. However, Xi Jinping , while discussing energy, made no public mention of the gas pipeline itself. Key issues remain unresolved. Chief among them is the price of gas. China, which already receives Russian energy resources on favorable terms, is in no hurry to commit to the new major route. The Kremlin later claimed to have reached an "understanding" regarding Power of Siberia 2, but there are no details. Reuters explicitly states that no agreement on construction or supplies has been announced. Power of Siberia 2 was intended to supply up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Russia to China via Mongolia. For Moscow, this is one of the most important projects after losing a significant share of the European gas market, but this is precisely why China has a strong negotiating position: Russia needs a buyer more than Beijing needs a Russian pipeline. The outcome for Putin is weak: instead of a major gas contract, China once again demonstrated its willingness to buy Russian resources, but on its own terms, analysts write. It was previously reported that the Kremlin failed to convince Beijing to give the go-ahead for construction of the new Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
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