BY COMFORT OGBONNA
Major U.S. banks are expected to report strong second-quarter earnings as a surge in trading activity, a rebound in deal-making, and major capital market transactions help drive revenue growth. Analysts say the highly anticipated SpaceX mega initial public offering (IPO), along with increased activity across equities and investment banking, will provide a significant boost to Wall Street firms.
Five of the six largest U.S. banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs — are scheduled to release their second-quarter results on July 14, while Morgan Stanley will report earnings on July 15. Investors will be closely watching the results for signs of how banks are benefiting from stronger markets, corporate deal activity, and changes in the broader economic environment.
Trading has remained one of the strongest areas of performance for major financial institutions in 2026, with market volatility staying elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence developments, and shifting expectations for economic growth and interest rates.
Analysts expect market-related revenue at the world’s largest banks to increase by at least 15% compared with the same period last year. Strong activity in equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities has helped financial institutions generate higher returns as clients continue adjusting their portfolios in response to changing market conditions.
The SpaceX IPO is expected to be one of the biggest contributors to Wall Street earnings during the quarter. The massive offering, valued at nearly $86 billion, involved several major banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which played key advisory roles. The transaction is expected to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in fees while also boosting revenue for equity trading divisions involved in managing investor demand.
Analysts believe Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley could be among the biggest beneficiaries because of their involvement in the landmark offering. However, some experts caution that while trading revenue remains strong, it may not match the unusually high levels seen during the first quarter, when extreme market volatility following geopolitical shocks and inflation concerns triggered intense buying and selling activity.
Beyond trading, investment banking has also emerged as a major source of growth for Wall Street firms. A surge in large equity offerings, mergers, acquisitions, and corporate financing deals has created one of the strongest environments for deal-making in recent years.
Global investment banking revenue reached $61.4 billion during the first half of 2026, marking a 24% increase from the previous year, according to industry data. JPMorgan Chase maintained its position as the world’s leading investment bank by revenue, while Goldman Sachs remained the top adviser for mergers and acquisitions.
Several major transactions contributed to the strong investment banking performance during the second quarter, including a $6.4 billion initial public offering from chip designer Cerebras and an $85 billion share sale by Alphabet, Google’s parent company. These deals highlighted renewed confidence among companies seeking access to capital markets after a period of uncertainty.
Banks are also expected to benefit from stronger lending activity and improving net interest margins, which measure the difference between the interest banks earn from loans and the interest they pay to depositors.
Data from the Federal Reserve indicated that loan growth accelerated during the second quarter, supported by increased demand for commercial and industrial loans. Analysts said businesses have continued moving forward with investment plans despite concerns about geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty.
Many banking executives have described the current market environment as a new normal, where companies have adapted to higher volatility and continue pursuing growth opportunities. However, investors remain focused on whether inflation pressures could weaken consumer spending and affect loan demand during the second half of the year.
Credit quality, loan growth, and broader economic conditions will be key factors determining whether bank stocks can continue their recent gains. Analysts believe investors will pay close attention to management commentary about the health of consumers, businesses, and the overall U.S. economy.
JPMorgan Chase executives have indicated that investment banking fees could increase by 10% or more in the second quarter, reflecting stronger advisory activity and improving deal conditions.
Bank of America expects markets revenue growth to exceed earlier forecasts of 15%, driven largely by strong performance in its equities division.
Citigroup has projected trading revenue growth in the high single digits to low double digits for the quarter, while also expecting investment banking revenue to rise by a mid-teen percentage.
Wells Fargo expects net interest income to improve during the quarter as lending activity strengthens and interest-related revenue increases.
Goldman Sachs has continued benefiting from a historic level of merger and acquisition activity, reporting that it has advised on more than $1 trillion worth of announced M&A transactions so far in 2026, representing a record pace for the firm.
Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Ted Pick has described current conditions as favorable for capital markets, pointing to strong investment banking activity and continued demand from corporate clients.
As Wall Street prepares for the latest earnings season, investors will be looking beyond headline profits to determine whether the strength in trading, deal-making, and lending can continue through the rest of 2026. While major banks appear positioned for solid results, concerns over inflation, geopolitical risks, and market volatility remain important factors that could influence future performance.