BY COMFORT OGBONNA
Oil prices moved higher on Tuesday after fresh reports of attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz reignited concerns about the security of one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes. The renewed geopolitical tensions prompted traders to add a risk premium to crude prices as fears grew that any further escalation in the region could disrupt global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.
Brent crude futures rose 89 cents, or 1.24%, to $72.88 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 71 cents, or 1.04%, to $69.26 per barrel during morning trading. The gains reflected increasing anxiety among investors who are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, where the Strait of Hormuz serves as a vital passage for energy exports.
Market analysts said the latest price increase was driven primarily by reports that commercial ships traveling through the strategic waterway had come under attack. While oil markets have remained relatively stable in recent weeks, the incidents have revived concerns that the conflict in the region could once again threaten global energy supplies.
According to maritime security sources, a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker sustained damage near the Strait of Hormuz, close to the coast of Oman. The incident followed reports that a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker was also struck while traveling through the Omani side of the strait, suffering significant damage. Several sources familiar with the situation said the attacks came after reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched missiles at ships passing through the narrow waterway overnight.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically important maritime corridors in the world. Before the recent conflict involving Iran, approximately one-fifth of the world’s daily oil and LNG supplies passed through the route, making any disruption a major concern for global energy markets. Even temporary interruptions to shipping can quickly influence oil prices as traders anticipate potential supply shortages.
Analysts noted that while the latest increase in crude prices reflects renewed geopolitical concerns, the market has not yet priced in a worst-case scenario. They believe the current gains represent a modest risk premium compared with previous periods of heightened tensions in the region. However, they warned that if attacks on commercial shipping continue or the conflict escalates further, oil prices could rise much more sharply.
Some market observers believe Brent crude could climb toward $75 per barrel in the near term if additional security incidents occur, with the possibility of prices approaching $80 per barrel should the situation deteriorate significantly. Investors remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East because the region continues to play a central role in global energy production and exports.
Diplomatic tensions have also added to market uncertainty. Iran’s foreign minister said Tuesday that negotiations aimed at reaching a final agreement with the United States would not move forward if Washington continued issuing threats. His comments came after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the United States would “finish the job” unless a deal is reached, raising fresh questions about the future of diplomatic efforts between the two countries.
The ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran are being closely watched by energy markets because any improvement or deterioration in relations could have a direct impact on shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz. Traders recognize that the outcome of these talks could influence not only regional stability but also the reliability of global oil exports.
Despite the heightened tensions, there were also signs that some energy shipments continue to move through the region. Shipping data showed that two additional Japanese-owned supertankers carrying Saudi crude oil were successfully exiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday after previously being stranded. Their departure is expected to provide Japan with additional Middle Eastern crude supplies this month and offers some reassurance that commercial shipping has not come to a complete halt.
Looking beyond the immediate geopolitical risks, analysts continue to evaluate the longer-term outlook for the oil market. Financial services firm Societe Generale expects the global oil market to transition from a supply deficit to a surplus beginning in late 2026 and continuing through 2027. The bank believes production growth from major oil-producing countries will eventually outpace demand growth, leading to increased supplies and potentially placing downward pressure on prices over the longer term.
For now, however, geopolitical developments remain the dominant force influencing crude prices. As long as uncertainty persists around the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic relations between Iran and the United States remain strained, oil markets are likely to remain volatile. Investors will continue watching both military and diplomatic developments closely, knowing that any escalation could quickly reshape the outlook for global energy supplies and fuel prices.