BY EMMANUEL OGBONNA
Israeli Prime Minister is facing growing political challenges in northern Israel, where voters living under the constant threat of Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks are increasingly expressing frustration with his government’s handling of the conflict.
A newly released poll indicates a sharp decline in support for Netanyahu and his ruling party in one of the country’s most strategically important electoral regions, raising questions about the prime minister’s political future ahead of national elections expected by October.
The findings highlight a complex political dilemma for Netanyahu as he attempts to balance domestic demands for a tougher military response against Hezbollah with international diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing tensions across the Middle East. The challenge has become even more pronounced following a ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Lebanon, an arrangement that many residents in northern communities view with skepticism.
For many voters living near the Lebanese border, security concerns dominate every aspect of daily life. Since the outbreak of regional hostilities following the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, communities across northern Israel have endured repeated rocket barrages, drone strikes, air raid sirens and evacuations. While military operations have significantly weakened Hezbollah’s leadership and capabilities, many residents believe the threat remains far from eliminated.
The poll conducted by Agam Labs at the Hebrew University revealed a dramatic erosion of support for Netanyahu in the north. Only 23 percent of voters in the region said they would support Likud in a future election, compared with the 35 percent the party received in the 2022 national vote. The decline is significantly steeper than in other parts of Israel and suggests that dissatisfaction among northern voters could have a substantial impact on the next election.
The survey also found widespread disapproval of the government’s management of the conflict in Lebanon. Approximately 70 percent of respondents in northern Israel said they were unhappy with the way the war had been handled, a level of dissatisfaction notably higher than elsewhere in the country.
Political analysts describe the shift as one of the most significant changes in Israeli voter sentiment since the last election. According to researchers involved in the poll, the region that once strongly supported Netanyahu’s coalition is increasingly moving toward opposition parties, creating a potentially serious challenge for the prime minister’s efforts to maintain power.
The situation is particularly evident in the border city of , a community that has experienced some of the most intense disruption since fighting erupted. Traditionally a stronghold of support for Likud, the city has endured frequent attacks and periods of evacuation that have transformed everyday life.
Residents describe living under constant tension, with warning sirens often providing only seconds to seek shelter. Many local voters say their primary concern is ensuring that Hezbollah can no longer threaten communities along the northern border.
Some residents argue that military operations should continue until Hezbollah’s military infrastructure is completely dismantled. They express doubts that ceasefire agreements alone can provide lasting security and worry that any pause in fighting could allow the militant group to regroup and rearm.
These concerns have intensified as diplomatic efforts have accelerated. The ceasefire agreement announced this week requires Hezbollah fighters to withdraw from southern Lebanon, a provision intended to reduce tensions along the border. However, many northern Israeli voters remain unconvinced that the arrangement will bring long-term stability.
Netanyahu has sought to reassure the public by stating that military operations will continue where necessary despite the ceasefire. Nevertheless, critics from both within and outside his political camp have accused him of showing excessive caution and yielding to international pressure.
The issue has become even more politically sensitive because of ongoing negotiations involving the United States and Iran. As Washington pursues broader diplomatic initiatives aimed at reducing regional conflict, some Israeli voters fear that strategic decisions affecting Israel’s security are increasingly being shaped by international considerations rather than domestic priorities.
Opposition figures have seized upon those concerns. Among the most vocal critics has been , the former chief of staff of the Israeli military and a potential challenger for national leadership. Eizenkot has repeatedly argued that the military should be given greater freedom to target Hezbollah positions and has called for a more aggressive approach to securing Israel’s northern border.
In recent weeks, opposition politicians have intensified their outreach efforts in northern communities, recognizing the region’s growing political importance. Eizenkot alone has reportedly made numerous visits to affected towns and cities, meeting residents and emphasizing his commitment to restoring security.
By contrast, Netanyahu’s limited presence in the region has become a source of criticism among some local residents. Several voters have voiced frustration that senior government leaders have not spent enough time listening to communities that have borne the brunt of the conflict.
The transformation of Kiryat Shmona illustrates the broader challenges facing northern Israel. Once known for its tourism, agriculture and thriving local economy, parts of the city now appear significantly diminished after months of conflict. Businesses remain closed, public spaces are sparsely populated and many families have relocated elsewhere due to security concerns.
The human and economic toll of the conflict has become a central issue in the political debate. Residents are not only demanding stronger military action but also seeking assurances that their communities will be rebuilt and protected in the years ahead.
Since October 2023, Hezbollah attacks have killed dozens of civilians in northern Israel and forced widespread disruptions across border regions. Meanwhile, Israeli military operations in Lebanon have caused extensive casualties and destruction, underscoring the broader humanitarian impact of the conflict on both sides of the border.
As election season approaches, the political battle for northern Israel is expected to intensify. The region represents roughly one-fifth of the national electorate, making it a crucial battleground in determining the future composition of Israel’s government.
For Netanyahu, whose political career has been defined by repeated comebacks and survival through numerous crises, the growing discontent in the north presents one of the most significant electoral tests he has faced in recent years. While his coalition remains firmly aligned with the political right, many of the voters who once formed its strongest base now appear increasingly willing to look elsewhere for leadership, particularly on the issue they consider most important: security.
Whether the newly announced ceasefire endures or collapses, the reaction among northern voters suggests that the conflict with Hezbollah will remain a defining issue in Israeli politics as the country moves toward a highly consequential national election.