By Zoey

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned Monday that Alberta’s planned referendum on separation from Canada could create serious long-term political instability, cautioning that even a non-binding vote carries risks that may extend far beyond the province’s borders.

Speaking to reporters, Carney criticized the decision by Alberta’s government to proceed with a referendum later this year asking residents whether the province should remain part of Canada or begin the constitutional process that could eventually lead to a legally binding vote on independence. While the October referendum itself would not immediately separate Alberta from the country, Carney argued that raising such a question publicly could fuel uncertainty and division.

The prime minister compared the situation to the United Kingdom’s 2016 Brexit referendum, where voters narrowly supported leaving the European Union, triggering years of political and economic disruption. Carney, who served as governor of the Bank of England during the Brexit period, said many voters at the time did not fully anticipate the long-term consequences of their decision.

He warned that separation campaigns often begin with arguments that a symbolic vote can simply strengthen negotiating power with a central government, but said such strategies can quickly evolve into far more serious constitutional crises.

Carney said Alberta residents had not been given a mandate for a separation referendum during the province’s 2023 election campaign, noting that the governing United Conservative Party did not campaign on the issue before securing victory.

Alberta’s government announced last week that the province would move ahead with the vote amid growing political frustration among some residents who believe federal environmental policies have harmed Alberta’s oil and gas-driven economy. Separation advocates argue that policies introduced under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau placed excessive restrictions on energy development and weakened the province’s economic competitiveness.

The oil-rich western province has long had tensions with Ottawa over taxation, energy policy and environmental regulations. Many conservatives in Alberta have accused federal governments of failing to adequately represent the province’s economic interests, particularly in relation to pipeline development and climate policies.

Since taking office in March 2025, Carney has rolled back several environmental measures introduced under Trudeau in an effort to ease tensions with energy-producing provinces and improve economic growth. Despite those changes, separatist sentiment has remained active among some political groups in Alberta who argue the province would have greater control over its resources and economy outside the Canadian federation.

The proposed referendum question would ask Albertans whether the province should remain within Canada or whether the government should begin the legal and constitutional steps required for a future binding referendum on independence. Constitutional experts note that even if a future vote supported separation, the process would involve lengthy negotiations with the federal government and other provinces.

An opinion poll released Monday by the Angus Reid Institute suggested that a majority of Albertans currently oppose leaving Canada. According to the survey, about 60% of respondents said they would vote to remain part of the country, while roughly two-thirds indicated they would reject separation in a binding referendum.

Still, analysts say the debate is likely to intensify in the coming months as Alberta politicians and advocacy groups campaign ahead of the October vote. The referendum is expected to deepen political divisions both inside Alberta and across Canada, particularly at a time when Ottawa is confronting broader economic and geopolitical pressures.

The vote would be historically significant because it would mark the first time a Canadian province outside Quebec has formally asked the public whether it should pursue independence. Quebec held two referendums on separation, in 1980 and 1995, with voters rejecting independence both times.

The Alberta debate also comes as Canada faces mounting economic challenges tied to trade tensions with the United States and preparations for negotiations over the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Carney has emphasized the importance of maintaining national unity as Canada responds to tariffs and shifting trade policies from Washington.

Political observers say the referendum campaign could become one of the most consequential domestic political battles in Canada in recent years, testing federal-provincial relations and reigniting broader questions about regional identity, economic autonomy and the future structure of the Canadian federation.