New internal polling released by House Republicans indicates the GOP is leading or tied in several Democrat-held congressional districts carried by President Donald Trump during the 2024 election cycle.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
House Republicans are expanding their focus toward several Democrat-held congressional districts as newly released polling from the National Republican Congressional Committee suggests the GOP is positioned competitively in multiple battleground races ahead of the midterm elections.
The polling memo released Thursday by the NRCC showed Republicans either leading or statistically tied in five districts won by President Donald Trump in 2024.
Republican strategists view the map as favorable terrain for expanding the party’s House majority, particularly because Democrats are defending a larger number of districts that voted Republican at the presidential level.
“House Democrats are staring down a political buzzsaw in districts that already rejected their party at the top of the ticket last cycle,” NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson said in a statement provided to Politico. “These polls underscore the NRCC’s strategy to go on offense, expand the battlefield and flip seats, putting Democrats on the back foot and making their climb out of the minority even steeper.”
One of the strongest Republican performances in the polling emerged in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where former Republican Gov. Paul LePage posted double-digit advantages against two prospective Democratic opponents following Rep. Jared Golden’s decision not to seek reelection.
The survey found LePage ahead of both state Sen. Joe Baldacci and state Auditor Matt Dunlap by identical 50% to 40% margins in the open-seat contest.
Republicans also showed strength in Washington state’s 3rd Congressional District. Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez trailed Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun by seven points in the NRCC survey despite previously surviving difficult Republican challenges in past cycles.
Three additional districts appeared closely divided within the polling margins of error.
In Texas’ 34th Congressional District, Republican Eric Flores narrowly led Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez by a 41% to 40% margin.
New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District showed Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez holding a slim 43% to 41% edge over Republican Greg Cunningham.
North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District survey found Republican Laurie Buckhout tied with Democratic Rep. Don Davis at 41%.
All five districts included in the polling were carried by Trump during the 2024 presidential election. Trump’s margins reportedly ranged from a narrow two-point victory in New Mexico’s 2nd District to an 11-point win in North Carolina’s redrawn 1st District.
Republicans enter the cycle defending comparatively fewer crossover districts than Democrats. According to the NRCC analysis, Democrats currently hold 13 congressional seats won by Trump in 2024, while Republicans hold only three districts carried by former Vice President Kamala Harris.
The polling memo also highlighted the GOP’s fundraising advantage heading into the election cycle. Republicans currently maintain an $8 million cash-on-hand advantage through the NRCC over the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, while pro-Trump political organization MAGA Inc. reportedly controls approximately $300 million in available reserves.
The internal surveys additionally found weak Democratic Party favorability ratings in several targeted districts.
In Maine’s 2nd District, Democrats registered a 29% favorable rating against a 61% unfavorable rating. Washington’s 3rd District showed similar results, with Democrats recording 31% favorable and 59% unfavorable numbers.
Democratic favorability in the remaining surveyed districts remained largely in the mid-30% range, while unfavorable ratings hovered in the low 50s.
Democratic officials rejected the significance of the polling results.
“No matter how Republicans try to manipulate push polling on the House battlefield; they can’t stop the inevitable — we are taking back the House in November,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Viet Shelton told Politico.
The surveys were conducted by Republican-aligned polling firm co/efficient between April 25 and April 29. Each district poll sampled between 842 and 982 likely general election voters. Reported margins of error ranged from plus or minus 3.1 percentage points to 3.5 percentage points.