By Gloria Ogbonna
The escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has already sent shockwaves through global oil markets, but experts warn that the long-term consequences could extend far beyond rising fuel prices. Analysts fear that disruptions to shipping through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints could trigger soaring food costs, fertilizer shortages, and an increased risk of famine in some of the world’s most vulnerable nations.
Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, told Fox News Digital that the most alarming scenario would mirror the prolonged closure of the Suez Canal from 1967 to 1975. That eight-year shutdown, he noted, remains one of the most severe disruptions in modern shipping history.
“The worst-case scenario would resemble the eight-year closure of the Suez Canal,” Jensen explained. “Best case, there is an agreement between the U.S. and Iran within the next few weeks, and the Strait reopens — but it has to be a deal where there is trust that Iran is sufficiently satisfied with the agreement such that they do not suddenly close the strait again.”
Even in the most optimistic outcome, Jensen cautioned that it would take months for global supply chains to stabilize. Shipping routes would need to be recalibrated, backlogs cleared, and confidence restored among international traders and insurers.
The historical comparison to the Suez Canal crisis underscores the potential gravity of the situation. The canal was shut down by Egypt at the outset of the 1967 Arab-Israeli War. Egyptian forces blocked the vital shipping route by laying minefields and scuttling ships to form physical barriers. The canal remained closed until 1975, marking its second closure after a shorter shutdown during the 1956-1957 Suez Crisis.
The prolonged closure forced oil tankers and cargo vessels to take the far longer route around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa, dramatically increasing transit times and shipping costs. The crisis cost the global economy an estimated $1.7 billion in lost trade at the time — roughly $11 billion in today’s dollars. Fourteen ships trapped in Egypt’s Great Bitter Lake for the duration of the closure became known as the “Yellow Fleet,” coated in desert sand after years of immobility.
Today’s shipping networks are even more complex and interdependent. Approximately 30 percent of the world’s fertilizer exports — including essential agricultural inputs such as ammonia, nitrogen, and sulphur — originate in the Persian Gulf and must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged disruption threatens to choke off supplies to global markets already strained by geopolitical tensions.
The world’s largest exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizer, the Qatar Fertilizer Company, has reportedly been offline since March, compounding concerns about availability. Fertilizer prices had already surged following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted grain and fertilizer exports while simultaneously driving up fuel prices critical for modern agricultural production.
David Miliband, head of the International Rescue Committee (IRC), described the growing fertilizer shortage in early April as a “food security time bomb.” He warned that the window to prevent a massive global hunger crisis is rapidly narrowing.
Echoing those concerns, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cautioned that as many as 45 million people worldwide could face famine if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several months. Even if maritime traffic resumes soon, he warned, food and fertilizer prices would likely remain elevated for an extended period as global logistics slowly recover.
Jensen emphasized that the ripple effects could be devastating if multiple harvest cycles are disrupted. “Rapid increases in food prices in very poor countries,” he said, could sharply heighten “the risk of famine and conflict.”
The danger is particularly acute in fragile regions already grappling with instability. In Sudan, ongoing armed conflict has devastated agricultural production and displaced millions. In Gaza, communities are still struggling to recover from the 2023-2024 war launched by Hamas. In such environments, even modest price spikes can tip vulnerable populations into full-scale humanitarian crises.
Jean-Martin Bauer, food security director for the World Food Program (WFP), wrote in the UK Independent that the current Middle East tensions have brought the world “to the brink of a catastrophic hunger crisis.” He cited fuel riots in Haiti and Kenya as early warning signs of broader unrest and predicted severe consequences for countries such as Somalia and Afghanistan.
“Across WFP’s global operations, we are seeing the largest disruption to humanitarian supply chains since the Covid pandemic and the start of the Ukraine war,” Bauer wrote. “This comes at a time when global supply chains are more fragile than in previous years.”
As geopolitical tensions simmer, the Strait of Hormuz crisis illustrates how quickly regional instability can escalate into a global emergency. While oil markets often capture immediate headlines, the deeper threat may lie in the cascading effects on agriculture, food access, and political stability across the developing world.
Without swift diplomatic resolution and coordinated international response, the world could soon confront not just an energy shock — but a hunger catastrophe.
Aource Breitbart