BY COMFORT OGBONNA
Global oil prices jumped sharply on Thursday, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and fears of further disruptions to energy supplies in the Middle East. The gains followed reports that the United States is considering potential military action against Iran, a move that could escalate an already fragile situation and deepen supply constraints across global markets.
Benchmark Brent crude futures for June climbed $5.27, or 4.5%, to reach $123.30 per barrel, extending gains from the previous session when prices rose more than 6%. The June contract marked its ninth consecutive day of increases before expiration, reflecting sustained bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the more actively traded July contract also advanced, rising $2.66 to $113.10 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for June increased by $2.42, or 2.3%, to $109.30 per barrel after posting a 7% surge in the prior session. Both major benchmarks are now on track to record a fourth straight month of gains, underscoring the prolonged upward pressure on oil prices.
The market reaction comes amid reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on possible military strikes targeting Iran, aimed at breaking a diplomatic deadlock over its nuclear program and the broader regional conflict. The ongoing tensions between the two nations have already had a significant impact on global energy flows, particularly after hostilities earlier this year disrupted critical shipping routes.
The conflict, which escalated with coordinated airstrikes beginning in late February, has had far-reaching consequences for oil supply chains. Iran responded by restricting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important chokepoints for oil transportation. Although a ceasefire has temporarily paused active combat, the situation remains volatile, with the United States maintaining a blockade on Iranian ports. These developments have significantly curtailed exports from the region, tightening global supply and fueling price volatility.
Efforts to resolve the crisis have so far stalled. Negotiations remain deadlocked, with Washington pushing to address Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons ambitions, while Tehran is demanding compensation for wartime damages and a degree of control over key shipping routes. Analysts warn that the lack of progress raises the likelihood of prolonged disruption, which could keep oil prices elevated for an extended period.
Market analysts note that sentiment has shifted rapidly as the reality of supply constraints becomes clearer. What was once optimism about stable energy flows has given way to concerns about sustained shortages, particularly in the Persian Gulf. Industry experts believe the conflict’s ripple effects could continue to weigh heavily on global markets, especially if shipping routes remain restricted.
Adding to concerns, discussions between U.S. officials and major oil companies suggest preparations are underway for a prolonged disruption. The possibility of a months-long blockade has raised alarms about the resilience of global energy infrastructure and the ability of producers to compensate for lost supply.
Attention is also turning to the OPEC+ group, which includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers. The alliance is expected to consider a modest increase in output quotas at its upcoming meeting, potentially adding around 188,000 barrels per day. However, analysts caution that such an increase may be insufficient to offset the scale of current disruptions.
Complicating matters further is the recent decision by the United Arab Emirates to withdraw from OPEC, a move that could weaken the group’s influence over global oil prices. While the UAE may eventually boost production independently, experts suggest that any significant increase is unlikely in the short term, particularly given ongoing logistical and geopolitical challenges.
Analysts also point out that Gulf producers may need several months to restore output to pre-conflict levels, even if conditions stabilize. Until then, the combination of constrained supply, geopolitical uncertainty, and fragile infrastructure is expected to keep markets on edge.
As the situation continues to evolve, oil markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the region. Any escalation or breakthrough in negotiations could trigger sharp price movements, but for now, the outlook suggests continued volatility and sustained upward pressure on energy prices worldwide.