BY COMFORT OGBONNA
The decision by the United Arab Emirates to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries marks a significant turning point for the global oil market, potentially weakening the group’s influence while reshaping the balance of power within the broader OPEC+ coalition. Despite the shock departure, delegates and analysts believe the remaining alliance is likely to stay united and continue coordinating oil supply policies.
The UAE, OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, confirmed it will officially exit the group on May 1 after nearly six decades of membership. The move frees Abu Dhabi from production quotas set by OPEC and its partners, allowing it to determine output levels independently once market conditions stabilize. The announcement caught many within the alliance off guard, with several insiders describing it as unexpected and disruptive.
By stepping away, the UAE becomes the largest oil producer to leave OPEC in recent years, delivering a notable blow to the organization and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia. Before recent geopolitical disruptions, the UAE was producing around 3.4 million barrels per day—roughly 3% of global supply—making its exit particularly significant for a group already grappling with declining market share.
Analysts warn that the departure could complicate OPEC+’s efforts to manage oil prices through coordinated supply adjustments. With one of its major producers now operating independently, the alliance will have less direct control over global output, potentially reducing its ability to influence market stability.
Once outside the group, the UAE will join other major independent producers such as the United States and Brazil, both of which produce oil without coordinated quotas. However, in the short term, the UAE’s ability to ramp up production remains constrained by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy shipments.
If shipping routes return to normal levels, the UAE could significantly increase output toward its estimated capacity of 5 million barrels per day. This potential has been a source of tension within OPEC, as the country has long pushed for higher production quotas to reflect its substantial investments in expanding capacity, reportedly totaling around $150 billion.
Strains between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been building for years, particularly over production limits and broader geopolitical differences across regions such as Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen. The UAE’s growing alignment with the United States and Israel has also contributed to shifting dynamics within the Gulf region.
Complicating matters further is the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has caused major disruptions to global energy supply. According to the International Energy Agency, the war has triggered the largest-ever disruption to daily oil production. Damage to infrastructure, including facilities in the UAE, has slowed production growth and delayed plans to fully utilize expanded capacity.
Despite these challenges, the broader OPEC+ alliance is not expected to collapse. Industry experts emphasize that Saudi Arabia remains the dominant force within the group due to its significant spare production capacity, which allows it to adjust output and influence global prices more effectively than any other member.
Other key producers appear committed to staying within the alliance. Iraq, OPEC+’s third-largest producer after Saudi Arabia and Russia, has indicated it has no plans to exit, citing the importance of maintaining stable and predictable oil prices.
OPEC+ has already seen several members depart in recent years, including Angola in 2024, Ecuador in 2020, and Qatar in 2019. However, none matched the scale or impact of the UAE’s exit, making this development particularly significant.
The influence of OPEC itself has been gradually declining over decades. Founded in 1960, the group once controlled more than half of global oil production. Today, its share has fallen to around 30%, as non-OPEC producers—especially the United States—have expanded output. The U.S., fueled by a shale oil boom, now accounts for roughly 20% of global production, transforming it into one of OPEC’s biggest competitors.
In response to this shift, OPEC formed the broader OPEC+ alliance in 2016 alongside major non-member producers such as Russia. This expanded group helped restore some control, collectively accounting for about 50% of global oil output in 2025. With the UAE’s departure, that share is expected to drop to around 45%, further reducing the group’s grip on the market.
Meanwhile, political tensions continue to shape the oil landscape. Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized OPEC, accusing it of manipulating prices, and has even suggested reconsidering U.S. military support for Gulf nations in response to oil policies. Ironically, he previously played a key role in persuading OPEC+ to cut production during the COVID-19 pandemic to stabilize collapsing prices.
Looking ahead, analysts believe OPEC+ members will prioritize rebuilding damaged infrastructure and stabilizing production rather than pursuing aggressive output cuts. While the UAE’s departure signals a structural shift and a potential weakening of OPEC’s long-term influence, the alliance itself is expected to remain intact for now.
Ultimately, the UAE’s exit underscores a broader transformation in the global energy market—one where traditional alliances are under pressure, geopolitical tensions are reshaping supply chains, and the balance of power is becoming increasingly fragmented.