According to the Taipei Times, Taiwan’s Institute for National Policy Research held a forum on Thursday, April 24 titled “Global Effects of the U.S.-Israel-Iran Conflict and Taiwan’s Security,” inviting scholars and experts to analyze the implications. Experts concluded that following the U.S.-Iran war, the United States will shift its strategic focus toward the Indo-Pacific, increasing Taiwan’s geopolitical importance. They emphasized that Taiwan should prioritize energy security, asymmetric warfare strategies, and defense resilience.
According to media reports, the forum was co-hosted by National Sun Yat-sen University’s Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies, subsidized by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy, and sponsored by the Chen Chi-chuan Cultural and Educational Foundation.
Tian Hongmao, president of the Institute for National Policy Research and senior presidential advisor, stated that after the war, the U.S. would inevitably redirect its strategic priorities to two key areas: the Americas, including addressing issues involving Canada, and the Indo-Pacific, with particular emphasis on relations with China.
“Within the broader global strategic framework, Taiwan’s importance will inevitably increase, not decrease,” Tian said.
He added that if the U.S. and Israel successfully neutralize Iran’s future war-making capabilities, Iranian-backed militant groups across the Middle East would likely also be weakened. This would improve relations between Arab states and the U.S., reducing Washington’s need to focus heavily on the Middle East.
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Tian also noted that NATO’s role outside of U.S. leadership has become increasingly questioned, with its strategic value gradually coming under scrutiny.
Indo-Pacific command stockpiles reduce direct impact on Taiwan
Former U.S. Department of Defense official Hu Zhentung noted that in the first month of the conflict, the U.S. used over 1,000 JASSM-ER stealth missiles and 850 Tomahawk missiles, while only 150 Tomahawks are scheduled for procurement in fiscal year 2026. By comparison, the U.S. purchased only 396 JASSM-ER missiles in 2020, highlighting how wartime consumption far outpaces replenishment capacity.
Hu stated that although the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has had limited direct impact on U.S. military deployments in the Indo-Pacific due to the Indo-Pacific Command’s own war reserve stockpiles, heavy reliance on American logistical support has created indirect effects.
Given the Middle East’s critical role in global energy markets, Hu argued that the conflict’s consequences are more far-reaching than the Russia-Ukraine war. For Taiwan, the primary lesson is the necessity of “energy resilience” and strategic resource stockpiling, reinforcing the importance of restarting nuclear energy development.
Hu stressed that Iran-related military operations have little direct security impact on Taiwan or the Western Pacific region.
According to the Taipei Times, Kuo Yu-jen, vice president of the Institute for National Policy Research, said the U.S.-Iran conflict is likely to continue in a low-intensity form, with the U.S. maintaining its naval and air superiority around Iran.
Kuo argued that America’s strikes on Iran are fundamentally aimed at weakening the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) by cutting off China’s access to cheap Iranian and Venezuelan oil.
He said the U.S. is unlikely to initiate a ground war, as doing so would divert strategic resources back to the Middle East—a scenario highly unfavorable for Taiwan.
Kuo emphasized that Taiwan must focus on energy reserves, noting that Taiwan’s natural gas and strategic oil reserves are significantly lower than Japan’s. While Taiwan’s political environment and geography make large-scale new storage facilities difficult, it should still diversify and secure additional energy supply sources.
He also warned that Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines cannot rely solely on U.S. stockpiles. With the U.S. spending approximately $17 billion on precision-guided munitions within just two weeks, Taiwan should increase its own missile stockpiles and capitalize on opportunities under the U.S. fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which could allow Taiwan to manufacture U.S. precision munitions.
Toward an Asian NATO and expanded regional defense cooperation
Former National Defense University political warfare dean Yu Tsung-chi stated that resolving the Iran issue is part of a broader U.S. strategy targeting both China and Russia, indirectly accelerating the formation of an “Asian NATO”-style collective defense system.
Yu pointed to U.S.-Japan military exercises such as Keen Sword and Keen Blade as deterrence measures against the CCP, helping to establish collective defense mechanisms in Asia.
He also highlighted Japan’s unprecedented public deployment of the warship JS Ikazuchi through the Taiwan Strait as a signal of military commitment under the principle that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency.”
Yu argued that Taiwan should seize the opportunity presented by shifting global dynamics to expand cooperation with the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines in drone technology and AI.
He added that because the U.S. identified ammunition logistics challenges during this conflict, Washington is now aggressively expanding global precision munitions production, with Taiwan likely to be a major beneficiary.
Former ambassador to the European Union and Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research director Li Chun noted that Taiwan’s economy has been relatively less affected by the U.S.-Iran conflict compared to other economies, based on stock market and energy price performance.
Taiwan’s GDP growth forecast for the year has been revised upward to 7.22 percent, though inflationary pressures remain a concern.
Li also warned that stable U.S. energy development could accelerate the relocation of high-tech industries to the United States.
Wang Shun-wen, professor of political science and law at National University of Kaohsiung, said the U.S.-Iran war demonstrated that “there is no absolute spear or shield,” underscoring the importance for Taiwan of developing asymmetric defense strategies and strengthening national resilience.
Wang Hung-jen, executive director of the Institute for National Policy Research, warned that Taiwan must treat energy security as a core national security issue rather than relying solely on external support.
He also stressed that Taiwan must prepare for the high-consumption realities of modern warfare by incorporating ammunition resupply and infrastructure protection into long-term strategic planning.