A proposed one-time tax on billionaires is advancing toward a statewide vote, setting up a major policy debate over revenue, economic impact, and migration.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
A proposed California ballot initiative that would impose a one-time 5% tax on billionaires appears likely to qualify for the November election after supporters reported collecting more than 1.5 million signatures, according to people familiar with the campaign cited by The Wall Street Journal. County officials must still verify the signatures, but the campaign expects to exceed the roughly 875,000 required for qualification.
The proposal, backed by the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, would apply to individuals with a net worth of at least $1 billion who were California residents at the start of the year. Supporters estimate approximately 200 individuals would be affected.
Advocates say the measure is intended to offset anticipated healthcare funding reductions tied to federal tax and spending changes. Suzanne Jimenez, a spokesperson for the campaign coalition, said in a statement that the signature milestone represents a significant step forward for the effort.
Union leadership has argued the tax is aimed at addressing immediate funding concerns rather than broader political messaging. Dave Regan, president of SEIU-UHW, said the measure seeks to prevent job losses in healthcare and rising insurance costs if additional revenue is not secured.
The initiative faces opposition from state leaders and business groups. Gavin Newsom has warned that the proposal could accelerate the departure of high-net-worth residents from the state. Critics argue the tax could weaken economic activity and reduce long-term revenue.
Business leaders, including Sergey Brin, have supported competing measures aimed at limiting aspects of the proposal, such as prohibiting retroactive taxation and restricting new taxes on certain forms of personal property. At the same time, some figures in the technology sector, including Jensen Huang, have expressed openness to the tax.
The initiative has also received backing from national political figures, including Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna.
Public opinion polling suggests mixed but favorable support. A recent survey conducted by the University of California, Berkeley’s Institute of Government Studies found that 52% of likely voters support the proposal, while 33% oppose it and 15% remain undecided.
Revenue projections vary widely. Supporters estimate the tax could generate approximately $100 billion, arguing that California’s economy will continue to produce new wealth even if some individuals relocate. However, a report from the California Tax Foundation projected that the measure could lead to annual revenue losses between $3.53 billion and $4.49 billion due to potential outmigration and related economic effects.
The state’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office has offered a more moderate estimate, indicating the tax could generate tens of billions of dollars in one-time revenue while also creating ongoing fiscal impacts if high-income residents leave the state.
If certified for the ballot, the measure will require majority voter approval in November, setting up a high-profile campaign over taxation, economic policy, and the state’s fiscal future.