BY EMMANUEL OGBONNA
Russian forces have seized approximately 1,700 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine since the start of the year and are advancing toward a critical line of defensive positions in the eastern Donbas region, according to statements by Valery Gerasimov during a visit to frontline units.
The remarks underscore Moscow’s continued focus on consolidating control over Donbas, a strategic objective that has defined much of the conflict since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022. The region, comprising the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, has been the site of some of the most sustained and destructive fighting, with Ukrainian forces gradually pushed back toward heavily fortified urban positions.
According to Gerasimov, Russian troops have taken control of around 80 settlements in recent months, advancing toward what he described as a “fortress belt” of key cities forming Ukraine’s defensive backbone in the region. These include Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka—urban centers that have long served as logistical and operational hubs for Ukrainian forces.
He indicated that Russian units are now within a range of roughly 7 to 12 kilometers of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, while active combat operations are already underway in parts of Kostiantynivka. These developments suggest an intensification of pressure on Ukrainian defensive lines, with Moscow seeking to exploit incremental gains to achieve broader territorial objectives.
The situation on the ground, however, remains contested. Ukrainian officials have reported localized counteroffensives, with Oleksandr Syrskyi stating earlier this month that Ukrainian forces had regained control of nearly 50 square kilometers of territory in March. Independent verification of battlefield claims from either side remains limited, and differing assessments highlight the fluid and complex nature of the conflict.
Pro-Ukrainian monitoring groups estimate that Russian advances this year have been significantly smaller than those cited by Moscow, suggesting gains of under 600 square kilometers. These figures point to a slower pace of territorial change compared to earlier phases of the war, even as fighting remains intense across multiple fronts.
Beyond the Donbas, Russian military activity has also been reported in northern and northeastern regions. Gerasimov said operations are ongoing in areas such as Sumy and Kharkiv, where Russian forces are attempting to establish what he described as a “security zone.” This strategy appears aimed at pushing Ukrainian positions further from Russia’s borders while stretching Kyiv’s defensive resources.
Russian estimates indicate that Moscow now controls the vast majority of territory in Donbas, as well as substantial portions of southern regions including Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Additional footholds are reported in parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, reflecting the broad geographic scope of the conflict.
Russia also retains control of Crimea, which it annexed in 2014 in a move widely condemned by the international community. Despite Russia’s continued hold over the territory, Crimea remains internationally recognized as part of Ukraine by most countries.
Independent assessments suggest that Russian forces currently occupy roughly one-fifth of Ukraine’s total land area. However, analysts note that the pace of Russia’s advance has slowed compared to earlier stages of the war, indicating both the resilience of Ukrainian defenses and the increasingly attritional nature of the conflict.
As the fighting grinds on, the battle for the Donbas fortress belt is likely to be a decisive phase in the broader war. Control of these cities would not only represent a significant strategic gain for Moscow but also reshape the military and political landscape of the conflict, with implications extending well beyond the battlefield.