By Elsie Kamsiyochi
The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran appeared increasingly unstable on Friday as Israel launched renewed attacks on Lebanon and the critical Strait of Hormuz remained closed, intensifying global tensions on the eve of the first direct U.S.–Iran peace discussions since the war began.
The strikes, which both Washington and Tehran acknowledged as violations of the still-new truce, landed just hours before U.S. Vice President JD Vance departed for Pakistan to lead the American delegation in negotiations aimed at ending the devastating conflict. Vance, speaking shortly before boarding his flight, struck a cautious but firm tone, saying he hoped for progress—but warned Iran not to test the limits of U.S. patience, declaring that “if they’re going to try to play us, then they’re going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive.”
The two-day ceasefire, while successful in pausing the barrage of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, has done little to ease the economic shockwaves reverberating across the globe. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz—arguably the most important energy chokepoint in the world—has caused an unprecedented disruption to international oil flows. It has also failed to calm the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, where the humanitarian situation is deteriorating rapidly.
President Donald Trump criticized Iran for what he called a “very poor job” of allowing oil traffic to resume through the strait. He also warned Tehran against attempting to levy fees on ships seeking passage, saying bluntly: “That is not the agreement we have!”
Meanwhile, Iran accused Israel of undermining the ceasefire by continuing to target Lebanese territory. Within mere hours of the truce being announced, Israel had carried out what sources described as the largest single set of strikes since the conflict began—attacks that killed more than 250 people in densely populated areas of Lebanon. Strikes continued on Friday across multiple towns in southern Lebanon, including a deadly operation that killed eight members of Lebanon’s state security forces.
Tehran insists that the ceasefire terms apply to Lebanon as well, a stance initially echoed by Pakistan—the nation that brokered the agreement. But Washington and Israel dispute this interpretation, arguing that the truce covers only the direct U.S.–Iran conflict and not Israel’s parallel campaign against Hezbollah. Despite this disagreement, Israel surprised observers on Thursday by announcing its readiness to begin separate negotiations with Lebanon aimed at ending the fighting and eventually disarming Hezbollah.
In Islamabad, preparations for the U.S.–Iran talks moved forward despite the violence. A senior Pakistani official described the process as “on track,” adding that the slight reduction in Lebanese hostilities—before Friday’s renewed strikes—was a “good sign.” Advance teams from both Iran and the United States have already settled into the heavily secured Serena Hotel, which sits inside a newly fortified 3-kilometre “red zone” established under a complete lockdown declared for the talks.
As negotiators gather, the global economy is beginning to feel the full weight of the crisis. Oil disruptions have pushed U.S. monthly inflation to a near four-year high, with consumer prices climbing 0.9% in March—an alarming signal reminiscent of the inflation shock that dogged the previous presidential administration. Although Iranian vessels continue to pass through the strait, nearly all other international traffic remains stuck, with daily crossings reduced to less than 10% of the usual 140-ship flow. Only a handful of ships made it through on Friday, including a giant Iranian supertanker capable of carrying 2 million barrels of crude.
Trump has declared strategic victory multiple times in recent weeks, but the war has not achieved the sweeping objectives he initially laid out. Iran retains its missile and drone capabilities, its nuclear enrichment stockpile has not been dismantled, and its leadership appears secure despite months of domestic unrest before the conflict. Tehran has now arrived at the negotiating table with a long list of demands—including the complete lifting of longstanding U.S. sanctions and formal recognition of Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz, including the power to collect transit fees. Such a shift would dramatically reshape regional power dynamics.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei—still not seen publicly since the death of his father on the war’s first day—issued a defiant message asserting that Iran would seek compensation for wartime destruction. “We will certainly not leave unpunished the criminal aggressors who attacked our country,” he vowed.
The United States is expected to push its own familiar demands: that Iran surrender highly enriched uranium, halt all additional enrichment, abandon its missile arsenal, and withdraw support for regional proxy forces. These unresolved issues are the same ones left hanging after Trump withdrew the U.S. from previous talks two days before launching the war.
Israel, meanwhile, signaled a new diplomatic opening. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he had instructed officials to begin peace talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible,” softening what had previously been a rigid refusal to negotiate. A U.S. State Department official confirmed plans to host a meeting between Israeli and Lebanese representatives next week.
But any hope for swift de-escalation remains fragile. Roughly one-fifth of Lebanon’s population has already been displaced by Israel’s month-long ground invasion aimed at driving out Hezbollah fighters who launched attacks in solidarity with Iran. With Lebanon’s infrastructure buckling, the strait still shut, and inflation rippling across continents, the stakes for Saturday’s peace talks could not be higher.
As Islamabad’s fortified streets prepare for the arrival of negotiators, the world watches and waits for even the faintest sign that this conflict—which has redrawn alliances, shaken markets, and engulfed multiple nations—may finally be moving toward resolution.