The caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is only the beginning of the economic cost of the war with Iran.

I study how , and I expect food prices to rise next, with high prices lasting even after whatever point hostilities end.

Along with and a , shipping traffic through the strait also carries , which is key to bountiful crops around the world.

Modern agriculture depends on precise timing of delivering nutrients to plants. When fertilizer arrives late or becomes too expensive to buy in sufficient quantities, farmers are left to either reduce the amount they use, plant fewer crops or switch to crops that need less fertilizer. Each option , cutting supplies of basic foods, feed for livestock and key ingredients used in a wide range of food products.

Ultimately, with corn prices rising, summer barbecues may taste a bit different or cost more. Corn on the cob may not be cheap, nor will corn-fed beef. In addition, many store-bought condiments, soft drinks and other food products are and will also cost more.

3 main crops, 3 nutrients needed

Three staple crops – corn, wheat and rice – supply .

To maximize production, those crops need : nitrogen, phosphate and potassium. Nitrogen . Phosphorus helps and is critical for early root growth and the formation of seeds and fruit. and boosts protein content.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the supply and of all three.

Natural gas, which determines , has seen a . To preserve its own supplies, , another nitrogen source for fertilizer.

In a similar effort, China, the world’s largest phosphate producer, has .

Potash, the potassium-rich component of fertilizers, has also been in recent years, in part because of economic sanctions on Belarus and Russia, which are .

As a consequence, . In the U.S., some fertilizers in just one month after the war’s start in late February 2026.

Affecting farmers first

Cereal plants absorb the during their early growth. Applying fertilizer later in the growth cycle is .

Reducing nitrogen application by 10% to 15%, or delaying application by two to four weeks, can .

Producing less corn and wheat reduces not only food available for humans but . Increased fertilizer costs and reduced grain supplies increase the price of raising livestock, making meat and animal products more expensive.

When feed costs become unsustainable, farmers may be forced to kill or sell off the breeding cows and sows that represent the future of the food supply. In the U.S., a combination of persistent drought and high costs in 2022 forced producers to , the highest proportion ever. As a result, the U.S. beef cattle inventory shrank to its , a problem that restricts beef supplies for years.

Ultimately, the costs are passed to consumers. In 2012, , it triggered a surge in feed prices, and .

More money can’t fix this problem

In mid-March 2026, the U.S. fertilizer supply was around . That’s right at the beginning of the time when Corn Belt farmers , including the first applications of fertilizer. typically come from mid-April to early May and between late May and mid-June.

Farmers who fear not being able to optimize their corn yields may decide to plant less corn or switch crops and plant . Either would reduce the corn supply.

may help farmers cover higher costs, but they cannot address timing if enough fertilizer simply isn’t available when it is needed.

Hitting home

American consumers aren’t facing the and or other countries are seeing from the war, but they will be hit in the pocketbook. U.S. prices for and are already climbing. The effects on the food supply take longer to appear, but they are coming.

Even when crops are bountiful in the U.S., consumers are not immune to global economic forces. A smaller 2026 crop, with , will put pressure on global corn prices, affecting everyone regardless of their nationality.

In March 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture used data from before the Iran war to for all food prices.

The question for consumers is how much of the rise in corn prices will be passed to the consumer, and how fast.

USDA research shows that the speed and extent of changes in food prices and the level of processing involved in making the food. Other factors also play a role, such as . When farm prices change, wholesale prices usually , but retail prices often take longer – sometimes two to four months.

Corn tortillas and other relatively lightly processed corn foods are more likely to show price responses within a few months after corn prices increase. Adjustments to cereals or poultry prices will take a little longer. Changes in the cost of livestock products such as beef will take longer, because there are and the sale of the meat to consumers.

Other indirect costs, related to the cost of fuel and packaging, tend to hit later. Producers often absorb the price increases in the short term, but some increases are already in the works. For instance, transport companies are adding on freight shipments.

Food price hikes hit low-income households harder than high-income households, because of their money on . For these households, even relatively affordable proteins, such as chicken, may become harder to purchase regularly.

A global food emergency

The cost and availability of fertilizer will affect the whole world. More than 300 million people worldwide already . The U.N. World Food Program predicts could join them by the end of 2026 if the conflict in the Middle East continues into the middle of the year.

Crop yields in 2026 are expected to be lower than normal. East African farmers even before the crisis and will likely have to .

These problems may seem removed for most Americans, but food prices are global in nature, and people in the U.S. will soon face these additional costs of the war.