More than a month into the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, the conflict has expanded beyond direct strikes to include Iranian drone attacks across the region. While all sides continue to frame the war in terms of battlefield success, attention is increasingly turning to its geopolitical consequences — particularly for China, as Beijing prepares for a high-stakes summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Analysts who spoke with Vision Times say the ultimate beneficiary of the conflict may depend less on the immediate military outcomes than on control of a critical chokepoint: the Strait of Hormuz. Through this narrow passage flows roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply, making it central not only to the regional balance of power but also to China’s long-term strategic interests.
“If Iran manages to preserve its survival and establish a new security regime in the Strait of Hormuz—while charging transit fees in yuan for oil tankers and maritime traffic in general—this would represent the greatest benefit for China,” said Hamid Bahrami, a Europe-based international affairs analyst of Iranian descent.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) moved early in the war to disrupt shipping through the strait, triggering volatility in global oil markets. At the same time, Tehran reportedly allowed preferential passage for countries such as China, Russia, and India, underscoring the geopolitical leverage that comes with control of the waterway.
Beijing’s posture on the war
Despite its stakes in the region, China has maintained a cautious posture. On March 31, Beijing and Islamabad jointly issued a five-point peace proposal calling for an immediate ceasefire, renewed negotiations, protection of civilians, secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and a United Nations-led peace framework.
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The proposal reflects China’s desire to balance ties with both Iran and Gulf Arab states while avoiding direct military entanglement.
“The recent China–Pakistan statement on the war suggests that China continues to pursue its familiar hedging approach, trying to balance between sides,” Bahrami said.
Pooran Chandra Pandey, professor and director at the Climate Centre at South Asian University in New Delhi, views the initiative more pragmatically. By emphasizing secure navigation through Hormuz, he argues, Beijing is primarily safeguarding its own economic interests.
China remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy flows. Since signing a 25-year strategic partnership with Iran in 2021 — reportedly involving up to $400 billion in planned investments across energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing — Beijing has deepened its economic stake in keeping the region stable.
“In this context and during ongoing conflict in the Middle East involving US allies in the region and American assets, China stands to gain much on account of energy supplies, fertilizers, aluminium and among commodities through the straight of Hormuz which in turn can help China maintain supplies and keep domestic prices under check, an important aspect in its internal politics,” Pandey told Vision Times.
Preparing for the Trump-Xi summit
The war’s trajectory is also shaping expectations ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. According to Pandey, recent signals from Washington—including indications that the U.S. may not insist on reopening the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition for ending the conflict—suggest that Iran will feature prominently in bilateral discussions.
“This is much anticipated,” Pandey said. “Iran would benefit from the summit in terms of a reference point for escalation and a solution on opening up of the Strait.”
China, he added, is likely to position itself as a mediator while quietly seeking assurances that it will not be drawn into future regional conflicts. Such an outcome could align with broader efforts by Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran to counterbalance U.S. influence.
He also believes that the war could end up strengthening what is currently a loose partnership between Iran, China, Russia, and potentially North Korea — to the detriment of the United States and Israel.
The Strait as strategic prize
The war’s outcome, and specifically who controls the Strait of Hormuz, will influence geostrategic losses and gains globally.
“Iran’s defeat in this war would amount to a long-term setback for the development plans of both China and India, as control over Persian Gulf oil would fall into the hands of the United States—an actor that has no interest in the advancement of its rival powers,” Bahrami said.
Pandey believes Iran is likely to retain control, citing its geographic position and influence over islands at the mouth of the strait. In this scenario, China would gain full access to the strait and receive “a seamless supply of energy, goods, commodities and fertilizer and aluminium,” he noted.
According to Bahrami, Chinese policymakers are prepared to tolerate short-term disruptions in energy supply if the broader strategic picture shifts in their favor.
“Observing that Iran has preserved its survival, that the United States is preoccupied, and that pressure on China has correspondingly eased, Beijing seems content to allow the situation to continue while providing limited support, such as intelligence assistance,” he said.