BY COMFORT OGBONNA
Global food prices recorded an increase in February after declining for five consecutive months, driven largely by higher prices for cereals, meat, and most vegetable oils. The rise offset declines seen in dairy products such as cheese and in sugar, according to data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
The organization’s closely watched FAO Food Price Index, which measures monthly changes in a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 125.3 points in February. This marked an increase from the revised January level of 124.2 points, signaling renewed upward pressure on global food markets after several months of easing prices.
Despite the increase, the index remained about 1% lower compared with the same period last year. It also stayed significantly below its historic peak recorded in March 2022, when food prices surged following disruptions triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That conflict severely affected agricultural supply chains and energy markets, pushing global food costs to record levels.
Cereal prices saw moderate growth during the month, rising by 1.1% compared with January. Wheat prices were a key contributor to the increase, climbing 1.8%. Analysts attributed the rise mainly to weather-related concerns in major producing regions such as Europe and the United States, which raised uncertainty about upcoming harvests. At the same time, logistical challenges in Russia and the broader Black Sea region continued to affect shipments and trade flows. Even with the monthly increase, wheat prices remained about 3.5% lower than their level a year earlier, reflecting improved supply conditions in several markets.
Rice prices also posted a modest increase of 0.4%. The rise was largely supported by strong global demand for premium varieties, particularly basmati and Japonica rice. Importing countries continued to seek steady supplies as consumption remains strong in many parts of Asia and the Middle East.
Vegetable oil prices recorded one of the strongest increases during the month, climbing 3.3% and reaching their highest level since June 2022. Palm oil prices moved higher due to robust global demand combined with reduced output in key producing nations across Southeast Asia. Weather conditions and seasonal production patterns in the region also contributed to tightening supply. Meanwhile, soybean oil prices increased amid expectations of supportive biofuel policies in the United States that could boost demand for vegetable oils used in renewable fuel production.
Meat prices also edged higher, rising 0.8% compared with January. The increase was led by record prices for sheep meat, which continued to face tight supply conditions in several exporting countries. In addition, strong demand for beef in major markets such as the United States and China contributed to the overall increase in global meat prices.
In contrast, dairy prices declined by 1.2%, continuing a downward trend that has lasted several months. The drop was mainly linked to falling cheese prices in the European Union, where supply conditions have improved. However, other dairy products moved in the opposite direction. Prices for skimmed milk powder, whole milk powder, and butter increased as global demand remained strong while supplies from some major exporters stayed relatively tight.
Sugar prices experienced the sharpest decline among the major food categories, falling 4.1% to their lowest level since October 2020. The drop reflected expectations of abundant global supplies, supported by favorable production outlooks in several producing countries. In particular, strong harvest projections and record output in the United States contributed to a more comfortable global supply outlook, easing upward pressure on prices.
Alongside the price data, the Food and Agriculture Organization also released updated forecasts for global cereal production. The agency slightly increased its projection for worldwide cereal output in 2025 to a record 3.029 billion metric tons. The revision reflects small adjustments to production estimates, particularly for maize and rice, as improved growing conditions and updated agricultural data were factored into the outlook.
If the forecast is realized, global cereal production would rise by about 5.6% compared with the previous year, highlighting the resilience of global agricultural systems despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate risks, and supply chain disruptions.
Global cereal inventories are also expected to strengthen. By the end of the 2026 season, world cereal stocks are projected to increase, pushing the global stocks-to-use ratio to around 31.9%. This level is widely viewed as comfortable by market analysts and suggests that supply conditions may remain relatively stable in the near term, helping to limit extreme price volatility in international food markets.
Overall, the February increase in global food prices reflects a mixed landscape in agricultural markets. While some commodities are experiencing stronger demand and supply challenges, others are benefiting from improved production prospects. The balance between these factors will likely continue shaping global food price trends in the months ahead as markets respond to weather patterns, trade flows, policy changes, and evolving consumer demand around the world.