By Cheng Kuanhou, Vision Times
The escalating military conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has intensified instability across the Middle East, raising concerns about global energy supply and shifting the strategic landscape for major powers. The crisis is now also casting a shadow over the anticipated Trump–Xi summit slated for later this month, with some international media suggesting the meeting could be delayed or even canceled.
However, analysts say the summit is still likely to proceed, and that recent developments in the Middle East may actually strengthen U.S. President Donald Trump’s negotiating position.
Scholars argue that the outcome of the conflict could provide Trump with additional leverage in negotiations with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, potentially narrowing the agenda to economic and trade issues while sidelining broader security discussions.
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Toeing the line
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Following joint U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran, tensions across the Middle East escalated rapidly. While Western governments responded with clear statements of support or condemnation, Beijing’s reaction appeared comparatively restrained.
China’s government issued its first official statement several hours after the conflict began, expressing “serious concern” about the situation and calling on all parties to cease military operations and return to diplomatic negotiations. The cautious response has drawn attention from observers who note China’s close political and economic ties with Iran.
The situation became more complicated after several international media outlets reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may have been killed during the conflict.
According to analysis by “The New York Times,” Beijing is reportedly assessing whether to delay or cancel the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting as a way to signal dissatisfaction with Washington’s military actions against Iran. However, many analysts remain skeptical that the summit will be scrapped.
Analysts expect summit to proceed
Shih Chien-yu, associate researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), believes the meeting will likely proceed as scheduled unless unforeseen developments arise. He noted that Iran plays a significant role in China’s strategic presence in the Middle East. “Iran is an important foothold for China in the region,” Shih said. “The United States is certainly aware of this, and that may be one of the motivations behind launching this military operation.”
At the same time, he cautioned that it remains uncertain whether Washington can fully undermine Iran’s regional influence. Shih suggested that while the summit will probably take place, its agenda may evolve in response to the unfolding geopolitical crisis. “There is a strong possibility the meeting will still be held unless some unexpected event occurs that we cannot yet see,” he said.
He added, “Originally, the summit agenda focused on tariffs, bilateral trade, and issues related to Taiwan. Now it may shift toward discussions on managing global crises.”
Trump’s position
Shih also argued that Trump’s military actions in the Middle East, particularly the reported destruction of significant portions of Iran’s naval, air, and nuclear infrastructure, demonstrate decisive leadership and strategic resolve. Such actions serve multiple purposes, he said. “They send a signal to China while also restoring confidence among European allies in U.S. leadership,” Shih explained.
Against this backdrop, Trump could approach the summit with greater confidence and bargaining power.
Another analyst, Kung Hsiang-sheng, associate researcher at INDSR’s Division of Chinese Politics, Military Affairs, and Warfighting Concepts, believes Trump’s current position reflects a strategy that has been unfolding for months. According to Kung, when news first emerged last year that Trump and Xi might hold a summit, some observers speculated that Washington was softening its stance toward Beijing.
There were even suggestions that the United States might consider major strategic compromises with China, including potential concessions related to Taiwan.
In retrospect, Kung argues, Trump’s actions in global hotspots, including Venezuela and Iran, appear to be part of a broader effort to strengthen his negotiating leverage ahead of the summit. “Looking back now, Trump’s actions before the summit appear to be part of a coordinated strategy designed to strengthen his negotiating position,” Kung said.
He added that Washington’s recent military moves signal that the United States may be less willing to compromise with Beijing on security issues.
Negotiations likely to focus on trade
Kung suggested that Trump could adopt a tougher stance during the summit, focusing primarily on economic and trade matters while avoiding concessions on security issues. “At the very least, negotiations may be limited to economic topics,” he said.
“Based on the recent military actions, Trump has demonstrated that he does not need to negotiate security matters with China. Even if Beijing raises issues such as joint management of tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the show of strength suggests that he may feel no need to make concessions.”
Shih believes the U.S.–Iran conflict may represent a broader turning point in global geopolitics. In his view, the war is part of Trump’s effort to reassert American credibility on the world stage during the early phase of his second presidential term. “The conflict could help restore international confidence in the United States and reaffirm its authority in global affairs,” he said.
The upcoming Trump–Xi meeting, therefore, may represent more than a routine diplomatic exchange. Instead, analysts say it could mark the beginning of a new phase in U.S.–China strategic rivalry.