BY MIRABLE ODETA
Average U.S. retail gasoline prices are expected to rise above $3 per gallon on Monday for the first time in more than three months, as escalating conflict between the United States and major oil producer Iran disrupts global crude flows, analysts said.
The anticipated increase could carry political consequences for Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of November’s midterm elections, with inflation and fuel costs remaining key concerns for voters. Trump has repeatedly — and often inaccurately — credited his administration with bringing down gasoline prices since returning to office last year. A renewed surge at the pump may complicate that narrative at a sensitive political moment.
According to Patrick De Haan, an analyst at retail fuel price tracker GasBuddy, the national average could surpass $3 per gallon for the first time this year. GasBuddy data show prices last exceeded that threshold nationwide in November 2025. As recently as February, average prices had fallen to about $2.85 per gallon.
“Oil will move first. Gasoline will follow — but gradually,” De Haan wrote in a blog post after the strikes on Iran, emphasizing that crude oil price shifts typically precede changes at the pump.
Iran, one of the world’s leading oil suppliers, has announced it is closing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that reportedly killed its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. The strait is a crucial maritime passage in the Persian Gulf through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil travels. At least three tankers have reportedly been damaged in the region, and several major shipping companies have indicated they will avoid transiting the waterway amid rising security concerns.
Global benchmark Brent crude surged roughly 10% to around $80 per barrel in over-the-counter trading Sunday as tensions intensified. Some analysts now warn that Brent could approach $100 per barrel if the Middle East conflict broadens into a sustained regional war, further tightening global supply.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, said the White House appears prepared to absorb the political risks associated with higher fuel prices in pursuit of its foreign policy objectives. He suggested administration officials are fully aware of the energy market consequences of confronting Iran and may prioritize limiting the duration of any disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
McNally also noted that the administration could signal a willingness to release oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to help contain price spikes. In 2022, then-President Joe Biden authorized a historic drawdown of the reserve following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in an effort to stabilize energy markets — a move that Trump and other Republicans strongly criticized at the time.
The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment on whether a similar release is under consideration.
Even before the latest escalation, gasoline prices had already begun edging higher as U.S. refiners transitioned to more expensive summer-grade fuel blends required under environmental regulations aimed at reducing air pollution during warmer months. Seasonal demand also typically peaks during the summer vacation period, adding upward pressure to prices.
Tom Kloza, a senior adviser for fuel supplier Gulf, said that prior to the outbreak of violence, prices were already projected to rise into the $3.10–$3.25 range per gallon under stable conditions in the Persian Gulf. The recent developments, he said, could accelerate that timeline and push prices even higher.
Kloza estimated that a $5-per-barrel increase in crude oil prices typically translates into roughly a 12-cent-per-gallon rise in gasoline and diesel prices. However, he noted that some suppliers have already raised wholesale fuel prices by as much as 25 cents per gallon in response to market volatility.
The recent price rebound marks a reversal from months of declines that began in the middle of last year, when high inventory levels and slower demand growth helped ease pressure on fuel markets. Those elevated stockpiles could still serve as a buffer against severe disruptions and may help moderate the extent of current price spikes.
As of February 20, U.S. gasoline inventories stood at 254.8 million barrels, near their highest levels since the coronavirus pandemic, according to the latest available government data. That volume represents roughly 30 days of supply, offering some cushion against short-term supply shocks.
Still, analysts caution that markets may remain volatile in the near term. “I expect a lot of price volatility tonight,” De Haan said, adding that after the initial wave of trading activity, markets may begin to stabilize as participants assess the full scope of the disruption.