The United States has called for a new round of multilateral nuclear arms control negotiations, aiming to reshape the global nuclear limitation framework after the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). However, China and Russia have shown cautious attitudes toward the negotiation model and participation scope, creating new uncertainties for the international nuclear arms control outlook.
New START expiration leaves nuclear arms control in a gap
The New START treaty officially expired recently, marking the first time in over half a century that the U.S. and Russia limit strategic nuclear deployments without any legally binding agreement. AFP noted that the treaty had capped the number of deployed nuclear warheads for both sides at 1,550 each, and its termination has raised international concerns about a new nuclear arms race.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that nuclear arms control can no longer rely solely on a bilateral U.S.-Russia model, and other nuclear-armed countries should also bear responsibility for maintaining strategic stability. He emphasized that China’s role in the global nuclear balance is increasingly important and should be included in future negotiations.
Previously, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to extend the treaty’s limits for one year and called for a “completely new, upgraded, and modernized” nuclear arms control agreement. Rubio also stressed that the U.S. would “negotiate from a position of strength” while continuing to maintain a reliable and modern nuclear deterrent.
US pushes trilateral talks, criticizes China’s nuclear expansion
At the United Nations disarmament conference in Geneva, Thomas DiNanno, U.S. Deputy Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Affairs, proposed a new arms control framework and criticized structural flaws in the previous treaty. He accused Russia of repeatedly violating the treaty and noted that global nuclear stockpiles continue to grow, making it necessary for the U.S. to promote a new nuclear arms control system.
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Reuters reported that the U.S. also accused China of secretly conducting nuclear explosions in 2020. DiNanno stated that U.S. intelligence indicates China carried out nuclear tests with yields in the hundreds of tons and used technical methods such as reducing seismic signals to conceal the activities. He specifically mentioned that China conducted a yield-related test on June 22, 2020.
DiNanno further said that China’s nuclear arsenal is expanding at a historic pace, potentially exceeding 1,000 warheads by 2030, and criticized the current lack of transparency and constraints in China’s nuclear forces.
China and Russia respond cautiously, multilateral approach faces differences
China’s disarmament ambassador Shen Jian denied the allegations, emphasizing that China has always maintained a restrained and responsible attitude on nuclear issues and opposed U.S. hype over a so-called “Chinese nuclear threat.” He noted that China’s nuclear arsenal remains far smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia, will not join new nuclear disarmament talks at present, and believes that countries with the largest nuclear arsenals should bear primary disarmament responsibility.
Russia also expressed differing views on the negotiation structure. Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s permanent representative to the disarmament conference, said that if new nuclear arms control talks are launched, countries like the U.K. and France should be included. Russia has already announced that it will no longer be bound by the New START treaty.
However, UK permanent representative David Riley stressed that the U.K. maintains a “minimum credible nuclear deterrent” and believes arms control negotiations should prioritize the countries with the largest nuclear arsenals. French representative Anne Lazar-Sury said that all nuclear-armed countries should take practical measures to reduce the risk of nuclear weapon use.
Geopolitical tensions complicate nuclear arms control prospects
Reuters noted that the expiration of the New START treaty has created the first vacuum in the global nuclear arms control mechanism since 1972. Analysts believe that the lack of binding constraints may force countries to assess rivals’ intentions based on worst-case scenarios, thereby driving nuclear expansion.
The U.S. and Russia together currently hold over 80 percent of the world’s nuclear warheads. Meanwhile, data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicate that since 2023, China’s nuclear warhead count has been increasing at a rate of about 100 per year.
Although the Trump administration previously proposed resuming nuclear tests, no concrete action has been taken. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia have recently restored direct military communication channels to prevent potential crisis escalation.