BY COMFORT OGBONNA

Russian energy giant Gazprom saw a notable increase in its average daily natural gas deliveries to Europe through the TurkStream undersea pipeline in January, rising 10.3% compared with the same month last year. The surge highlights Turkey’s growing role as the primary transit route for Russian gas after Ukraine opted not to renew a five-year transit deal with Moscow, which expired in January 2025.

Total Russian gas exports to Europe via TurkStream reached 1.73 billion cubic metres (bcm) in January, up from 1.57 bcm in January 2025. Daily flows averaged 55.8 million cubic metres (mcm), an increase from 50.6 mcm a year earlier and roughly in line with December’s 56 mcm per day.

Gazprom, which has not released its own monthly export statistics since early 2023, did not respond to requests for comment on the figures.

Despite the January increase, Russian gas exports to Europe remain far below pre-2025 levels. Last year, Gazprom’s deliveries sank by 44%, marking their lowest point since the mid-1970s, with total annual exports of just 18 bcm. This sharp decline followed the closure of the Ukrainian transit route, which had previously been a key pathway for Russian gas to European markets.

At their peak in 2018 and 2019, Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe exceeded 175–180 bcm per year, demonstrating the dramatic scale of the drop in recent years. The shift toward TurkStream underscores both the geopolitical and infrastructural changes reshaping European energy supplies.

Analysts say the reliance on a single transit route through Turkey increases Europe’s vulnerability to potential disruptions but also reflects Russia’s strategy to maintain a steady supply of gas to its European customers despite the loss of the Ukrainian corridor. The January uptick in deliveries may provide some short-term relief to European markets, which have faced volatility and supply uncertainty following the reduction of traditional Russian pipeline imports.