By Yan Chungong
The detention of Zhang Youxia has unfolded in an unusually opaque and disquieting manner. Within days, the case was publicly announced, departing from the Communist Party’s customary handling of internal power struggles. Party media coverage has been strikingly inconsistent: some official outlets have removed all references to the announcement, while others continue to display Zhang’s official profile. Political tension has risen nationwide, marked by arrests in multiple locations and frequent military movements.
Meanwhile, U.S. media have reported allegations that Zhang provided nuclear weapons secrets to the United States—charges of extraordinary gravity that the CCP itself has conspicuously avoided addressing.
The seizure of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli represents an unprecedented non-organizational action and amounts to a political gamble by Xi Jinping. Official Party media cite three charges: serious disciplinary and legal violations, corruption, and grave violations of the Central Military Commission chairman responsibility system. The first two are standard “catch-all” accusations applied to nearly every fallen senior official. The third, appearing for the first time in official reporting, is the real crux of the matter.
Before the removal of He Weidong, Miao Hua, and Li Shangfu, a basic balance of power existed within the military leadership. Zhang Youxia, though of Xi’s generation, was not part of Xi’s inner circle. With combat experience, Zhang oversaw the CMC’s daily operations, while Xi, as chairman, retained final authority. The purge of He, Miao, and Li shattered this equilibrium, expanding Zhang’s influence and leaving Xi increasingly constrained.
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The decision to remove He Weidong and the other senior generals could not plausibly have come from Xi himself, who would not dismantle his own power base. Nor could it have come from Zhang, who remained formally subordinate. The only remaining explanation is the intervention of Party elders operating behind the scenes.
Such a move would have required compelling evidence, leaving Xi powerless to intervene even if he wished to. Holding simultaneous control over Party, state, and military affairs, Xi could not personally manage the CMC’s routine operations, allowing Zhang’s authority to expand further.
The language of ‘collective leadership’
From late 2024 onward, Party media revived the language of collective leadership—a clear corrective to years of unrestrained personal adulation. Xi’s political footing appeared less secure, reflecting the elders’ resistance to a one-man system. The purge of senior generals objectively weakened Xi’s military control and limited the scope of personal rule.
Had Xi accepted this internal consensus, stability might have prevailed. Instead, his ambition and the accumulated enmities of more than a decade in power left him facing an existential dilemma. Relinquishing authority risked political reckoning and potentially catastrophic consequences for himself and his family.
Xi thus confronted a stark choice: reclaim supreme power and pursue lifelong rule, or allow circumstances to deteriorate beyond repair. The apparent targeting of Zhang and Liu masks a deeper confrontation with the Party elders themselves.
Unlike the era of Deng Xiaoping or Chen Yun, no elder today holds unquestioned authority. Power now resides in institutionalized mechanisms. To resolve his predicament, Xi would have to neutralize the elders’ collective influence.
This explains the broader strategy: not only the detention of Zhang and Liu, but the effective immobilization of the elders. Though collectively powerful, the elders live dispersed lives and depend on the Central Guard Bureau for security. Under the pretext of protection, they could be placed under supervision without resistance.
Arresting Zhang and Liu carried risks given their military influence. Using Cai Qi’s control over the Central Guard Bureau provided both justification and means: first detaining Zhang and his allies, then restricting the elders to prevent interference. This sequence completes the logic of the operation.
Xi’s ultimate power struggle
Detaining Zhang and Liu alone would not resolve Xi’s ultimate power struggle. Vacant military posts would still require filling, and major state appointments would still need the elders’ approval. As long as they retained influence, a return to one-man rule would remain unattainable.
Although Zhang and Liu have been detained and the elders remain silent, the likelihood that they have been placed under soft supervision is considerable. The unresolved question is whether Xi can command obedience across the Party, military, and society, and whether such non-organizational methods can be sustained without provoking broader resistance.
After the fall of the Gang of Four, Chen Yun warned that such actions should never be repeated. By moving against the elders once again, Xi has broken that taboo. The gamble is profound.
In the aftermath, Xi quickly reappeared in public while Party media fell silent and military movements intensified. The atmosphere appears calm on the surface but tense beneath. The elders cannot be confined indefinitely, nor can military vacancies remain unfilled. Official silence has fostered a sense of impending crisis. Xi must restore normalcy swiftly—or risk a far more destabilizing outcome.