A new assessment estimates the conflict is approaching two million combined military casualties, with Russian forces sustaining significantly higher losses than Ukrainian troops.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
The war in Ukraine is on track to reach nearly two million combined military casualties by this spring, according to a new analysis that describes Russia’s losses as historically severe and strategically destabilizing. The assessment, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in a report examining Moscow’s battlefield performance, concludes that Russia is absorbing “massive numbers of fatalities and total casualties,” turning the prolonged conflict into a growing vulnerability for the Kremlin, the study states.
Jones War Ukraine Report by yourNEWS Media
At current rates of attrition, the report estimates that total military casualties on both sides will reach the two-million mark within months. Of that figure, roughly 1.2 million are attributed to Russian forces since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, including troops killed in action, wounded, or rendered unable to fight. The study estimates that 415,000 of those Russian casualties occurred in 2025 alone.
Within the cumulative Russian total, the analysis places the number of troops killed between 275,000 and 325,000. The report notes that this death toll exceeds the combined number of American battlefield deaths in the Korean War, Vietnam War, Gulf War, Afghanistan, and Iraq, and is roughly five times higher than fatalities suffered by Russia and the Soviet Union across all wars since World War II.
Despite Russia’s significantly larger population, the study argues that Moscow is expending personnel at an unsustainable rate in exchange for minimal territorial gains. The report characterizes recent advances as exceptionally slow, stating that Russia’s pace of progress in recent months is now slower than Britain’s advance at the Somme or the United States’ at Belleau Wood during World War I, a stark contrast to the rapid early thrusts of 2022.
Western analysis of battlefield casualties has long focused more heavily on Russian losses than Ukrainian ones, as has been previously reported. Even so, the CSIS assessment concludes that Ukrainian forces have fared comparatively better. The report estimates a kill ratio ranging from two-to-one up to two-and-a-half-to-one in Ukraine’s favor, meaning that for every two Ukrainian soldiers killed, as many as five Russian troops may have died.
Summarizing its findings, the report states that “despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power.”
Looking ahead, the study warns that Russia may face internal instability once it begins demobilizing its wartime force. CSIS analysts write that “Russia will likely face a major challenge from the return of tens of thousands of soldiers, including many violent offenders and individuals who have faced traumatic combat experience.” The report adds that Russian veterans returning from Ukraine have already committed a growing number of violent crimes, “including murders—against Russian civilians.”
Combat trauma and post-traumatic stress disorder are not unique to Russia. Ukraine has also attempted to bolster its fighting strength by releasing prisoners for military service, underscoring concerns that both countries may face long-term social consequences once large numbers of combatants return to civilian life.
The projected two-million-casualty milestone would represent a sharp increase from estimates of roughly 1.4 million casualties reported in the summer of 2025. The CSIS fatality ratio also diverges sharply from public statements by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who suggested last year that Russian battlefield deaths were nearly eight times higher than Ukrainian losses, highlighting the wide variation in casualty assessments as the war continues.